Live Feed Discussion-September 18, 2018

[sdkgeo]

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[sdkgeo]

Morning all.

Yes, Sam is pissed at the other 4 and is isolating herself. She had a final 3 with Kaycee and Tyler and asked Tyler several times if he had replaced her with Angela and he told her no, so she's gonna be salty. She'll get over it. She's just used to having a physical outlet for her anger, hence her comments about not being able to chop wood.

[Barbso]

Sam has to be the most creative person on BB that I can remember. She passes the time working with her hands instead of idle chat, which hasn't done anything good for her game, though. As amazing as the things she makes from nothing are it's also what is making us think she has lost it. I just think at this point she is so angry and feels so betrayed by Tyler and doesn't know how to deal with it. this game hasn't been right for many others and I think it's just not the right vehicle for Sam. She seems to have cut up the t-shirt to get the threads. she even mentioned trying to crochet. I'm sure she's going home tonight and I'll miss her in the house.

[Walleye]

I agree. She is a really bad fit for this game. At least on survivor she could go collect wood or make stuff that would help her tribe. It would keep her calm. I don’t think CBS is going to want her around anymore.

[Rainyday]

I feel badly for her. I think the whole robot thing really was really bad for her type of game.

[TTOTambz]

Lots of great thoughts yesterday about F2 such as who to take, what to say etc. Many made solid points about KC not being great with speeches. To that end I felt Haleigh was the best at speeches and Brett was the wittiest, but he tended to need prep time for those.

Anyway CubbyBrother made a sports analogy which clicked something for me regarding comp wins. Entering F4 each of the trio have six comp wins although two of Angela's aren't as impressive. This b/c one was handed to her by Tyler and the other didn't produce a result which affected nominations or safety. KC's Hacker app I consider to be the same as a HOH/POV b/c it did affect noms/safety, however it still didn't stop her from ending up on the block on eviction night. And, JC as we know has none. So - here's a little thought tangent to consider --


Comp Wins versus potential:

JC

• No comp wins
• Has potential to win out - but - let's get serious (his BEST bet is to win F4 HOH if it's a crap shoot comp). Btw - did anyone else find his logic ridiculous that he would've won the current HOH if Angela was gone? Based on what I saw Sammy would have won if Angela wasn't there. (or Brett could've if he was still in the house).

Angela:

• first comp (black box) to compete vs. Swaggy for who was safe for the week (she lost)
• 3 HOHs
• 2 POVs (one literally handed to her by Tyler)
• Potential to win 3 more comps (not eligible for F4 HOH -+ she performs well under pressure)

Total: 5 "typical game" comp wins (1 handed to her), plus the safety comp

Kaycee:

• 1 HOH
• 4 POVs
• 1 Hacker comp
• Potential to win 4 more comps (though she hasn't demonstrated the ability to beast with logic or Q & A comps which will comprise at least 3 of the final 4 comps).

Total: 6

Tyler:

• 3 HOH
• 3 POV
• Gave Fes W1 POV & handed Angela W6 POV
• Potential to win 4 more comps (performs well under pressure)

Total: 6 (which easily could read 8)

Therefore things are even for the trio albeit Kaycee and Tyler's comp wins offer better stories. Angela can win three more, while KC/Ty can win 4 more. Remembering I'm skewed in my thinking (hey, at least I own it, lol) -- I could easily see Tyler winning out more than I envision the ladies doing it. The logic I used here (and I'll have to see Weds tape to know how hard he tried), but I don't think he would've wanted to win F5 POV b/c he probably knew Sam/JC couldn't beat the trio and this way he could tell Sam I can vote for you, but the girls aren't so, it would paint a target on me entering F4.

Moreover, I think he'll just decide to let the JC train go - there's no saving him being pissy, so he may as well gun for wins. Besides, my belief is Tyler cutting Brett at F6 had more to do with his date comp ability and potential he would cut him at F3 than him being disloyal (although he'll use the loyalty argument as his reason especially if he selects the F2 person and picks KC). Plus why cut Brett unless you plan on winning those comps?

Supposing Tyler does what I think he will and wins out via F4 HOH/POV as well as Part 1 (or II) of Finale and Part III. Should that occur he'll arrive at a F2 chair with TEN COMP wins versus whoever he sits beside (assuming it's not JC) who'll have six or seven comp wins. I think he'll try to take Part I just so he doesn't have to chance having to win Part II (and as fast as KC is I think the logic of Part II leans to Angela's favor).

In the event Angela is the one who wins one of the final HOH parts but Tyler takes KC he can use the argument she couldn't win down the stretch when it counted & he'd be sitting with FOUR additional comp wins (that's impressive).

Where the F4 currently reside:

JC: Some believe if he was able to reach a F2 he could beat anyone. I'm not in the same camp b/c for as bitter as this jury is at L6 - there are no doubt those in F-Hive who will be furious he played them, lied repeatedly and laughed at them calling them all dummies (and don't think Brett hasn't told them that). Regardless of how Brett feels he'll still want an L6 member to win the season.

Angela: I honestly don't think she has a shot of finishing better than F2 even in the unlikely event she won out. She will NEVER get Rocky, Fes or Sam's vote. Based on what Brett said on Off the Block it's unlikely he'll pick her either over any of his L6 teammates. The only one I could see him perhaps changing that for is if she sits beside JC, but that's unlikely to occur. Scottie is the wildcard here.

Kaycee: Entering F4 she has the best shot of winning the grand prize if she hits a F2 chair and can only improve her odds by winning additional comps. Several times this season JC has referred to KC as a follower, with no real strategy. I wonder if Tyler takes her if he'll use that in his speech.

Tyler: Of the four players the most difficult to predict how the jury views them or for that matter will vote is Tyler. As many note, it could simply be a matter of the best player not winning b/c of bitterness. It shouldn't be a matter of the best player getting cut b/c each of his competitors is most likely to pick him. JC would need it to be Tyler to SELL his puppeting strategy, KC has the loyal F2 with him and Angela knows KC is the most liked by the jury. But, how does Tyler move from $50k to $500k?

The comp argument - how it may affect jury votes:

As per the top of this post, CubbyBrother got me thinking about comp wins. In the event Tyler guns to win out that would mean he could arrive at F2 with TEN comp wins. Should he do that he'll make history as no previous player has come close to that mark. Janelle and Rachel both have 13 and Dani Donato has nine, but those were accumulated over multiple seasons. That is an accomplishment which will resonate with a few of the jurors. At the top of that list is Faysal who also would rather award a male over a female for the win. Likewise Brett will be impressed by that win total. Some feel Brett will be bitter toward Tyler, and perhaps I'm reading him incorrectly, but I think there's a strong possibility Brett will respect the "complete game" & I also think Scottie will too.

Tyler certainly would be better served (given the choice) to bring Angela to F2 since he'd have Rocky, Fes, Sam as an automatic. Bayleigh seemingly would be the one who would never vote for Tyler, but sitting beside Angela that may change. I don't think Haleigh would pick him over either Angela or KC. The toss up votes I think are Brett, Scottie and JC who will likely be affected by who Tyler sits beside. And the ninth voter will be whoever of the trio exits at F3. Presuming Tyler gets to choose I think this is another split as Angela if cut I believe would still reward Tyler with the win knowing she'll be spending the money with him whereas cutting KC would likely result in her voting for Angela. So let's lay out the two scenarios:

Tyler takes KC:
Votes for Tyler: Brett, Fes, Scottie, Angela
Votes for KC: Haleigh, Bayleigh, Rocky, JC (?)
Deciding vote: Sam (could giving Sam a vote as she leaves and forcing Angela to vote her out change that dynamic? Or could a conversation from him re: KC/Angela both voting against her implying his hands are tied work to his benefit? Also - see my 'proposed speech & a way he could grab Sam's vote b/c of what he'll include in that speech).

Tyler takes Angela:
Votes for Tyler: Brett, Fes, Scottie, JC, Sam, Rocky
Votes for Angela: KC, Bayleigh, Haleigh

The question is does Tyler see his path to winning is far easier facing Angela? And, how confident is he that he could swing jury votes if he brought KC?

Proposed Speech:
As for all the notes I pointed to yesterday some noted he may not be able to say everything in a limited time. Ty could deliver a condensed version of that by saying -

My initial role in Level 6 was playing the middle and influencing specific people. I accomplished this via gaining Kaitlyn, JC and Sam's trust. Either via nominations or votes I specifically influenced the evictions of Steve, Swaggy, Winston and Rachel mostly via one vote differential. For their loyalty I kept the targets off Sam & JC until F5. Brett was a casualty b/c he was going to target L6. As a team we worked without you knowing we were aligned or that KC was my true *F2. Granted, I had to get more blood on my hands, but without those relationships Foutte and the Hive are the ones standing here. I won the most comps ever achieved in a single season (10?), received a power app week 2 **only telling one person and never needed to use it. I enjoyed playing with everyone, but I remained loyal to my number one (KC) and my alliance. Finally, knowing what you know now, if given the opportunity to reset who of the two of us would you pick to partner with from game start. If it's me I humbly ask for that to guide your decision and grant me the winner of BB20.

*if he takes KC
**this is where he gains back Sam, b/c she'll learn she was the ONLY one he told/trusted
I timed it a few times and give or take a second it falls at the minute mark which I think they would allow him.

The x-factor - final year of BB?

AND there is one more major factor here. Let's presume JC is the F4 eviction and he arrives at the jury round table with knowledge Tyler won to bring him to EIGHT comp wins entering the Final three-part HOH. Given speculation this could be the final Big Brother ever how much will the host push to reveal Tyler's game? Perhaps CBS won't care or TPTB won't care-- but one would assume they'll want to go out with a bang (and TPTB/Julie may want to encourage another network to pick up the show). While it's true any of the L6 trio winning would be a worthy BB20 title winner, Tyler (again IMHO) ranks among the very best to ever play BB from a "complete game" perspective with Kaycee a very, very close second to him.

Other notes:

• JC continues to try to spin his web. He told KC he doesn't have any F2s (lie - Tyler), NEVER talks game with Tyler (lie - which she knows isn't true) & should he win HOH he won't put her up meaning Angela & Tyler will go on the block should he luck into an HOH. This is partly JC's belief that Angela will be cut next if either he or Tyler win POV, so he's trying to work to pull in KC so if they are F3 she'll pick him over Tyler.
• The interesting point from the above conversation is KC doesn't tell Tyler what JC said (at least that I saw - rather she said he wasn't saying anything. I wondered at the time if Ty knows KC well enough to see she's lying- which is an interesting development from her and kind of cool to see b/c it means she's shifted into end game mode.
• Ironically, I think KC believes all three would take her to F2 - Angela b/c of their early attachment, JC b/c of their LGBT ties & Ty b/c of the promised F2.
• Angela also thinks both KC or Ty would take her and doesn't plan on having JC with them at F3
• Tyler pretty much knows he is F2 regardless since Angela knows JC/KC are too well liked in jury, JC b/c KC is too well liked, he simply wouldn't bring Angela out of spite & he needs it to be Tyler for his puppeteering pitch & KC b/c she'll be loyal to their F2 deal.

So, I don't know if these factors move the bar - but you all know my mind never stops, so I had to put in down for everyone's insights . Today Sammy will leave the house, do OTB I think tomorrow then head to jury for a brief stint. The F4 will play both HOH prob today and POV probably tomorrow taking them to Thursday night.

Let me know if my new thoughts are delusional or perhaps offer that sliver of hope Tyler can still take KC (I mean I don't mind Angela but I'd really like it to be Ty & KC in the F2).

Have a great day all

[soflaguy]

I found the whole Cody/Derrick conversation between Ty and KC to be pretty telling. Unless they are lying to each other, I see them taking each other. Neither one is really Cody, but I think Tyler can better represent himself as Derrick.

It is still going to come down to the jury bitterness factor. I am not sure I would put Scottie in Tyler's column for the win. If I were Tyler, I would be focusing on winning over Haleigh and Baleigh.

[TTOTambz]

Based on the jury comments it sounded like Bayleigh was the MOST against Tyler, Maybe if he cuts Ang to bring KC he could win her over But both Bay/Hal seem more likely to pick him if it's Angela and less likely if it's KC. Hal already said she would vote for KC or Brett. Does any of this change when the group finds out those 4 were together since day 3? Not sure.

Again, I think a lot depends on what Brett says & what JC says. AND - I haven't even got into the F2 deals yet. Brett is easily addressed b/c he can say but you were in a trusted alliance since the beginning, were willing to turn on them & didn't make the F2 until day 80. Was I supposed to say no? As for Sam she made so many pinkie promises around the house I also think that's easily addressed (and she voted how she wanted while trying to flip votes to keep people who would put him in jeopardy).

The only F2 deal he may have trouble explaining is maybe JC & much will depend on what Brett shared with the jury. Once JC is gone will KC tell him all the things he said not knowing it might help Ty build a case against him? In truth all Tyler has to say is JC I love you as a person, but the fact you were calling Fessy your big dummy all summer and kept referring to all of us as stupid wasn't a game I respected, so I used you the way you were using them. Bottom line if I'm Ty I'm not counting JC in my column unless I sit facing Angela and even then I'm not sure.

[lyriele2]

I do think Tyler has a shot to win over KC, but clearly has a much higher chance to win sitting beside Angela.
And despite Brett's comment about feeling the most betrayed by Tyler, I think Tyler will get his vote. I do believe Brett respects gameplay, and will adhere to that .
Scottie is, and always has been, a wildcard to me, so that is much harder to predict.

[beckyd30]

I know it's wrong, but I am so hoping that Fes loses it when he finds out what JC said about him and body slams him when JC walks into the JH or comes out on Finale night. Brett can help stoke the fires of anger with everyone in the Jury if he lets them all know EVERYTHING JC said about all of them.

[TTOTambz]

Just a quick note -- if Tyler does take Angela to F2 won't it be the first time ever in North American BB a showmance would reach the F2 seats?

[lyriele2]

That depends whether you would count Boogie and Erika.😀

[TTOTambz]

LMAO--- I mean "REAL" showmance like a Jeff-Jordan, Brendan-Rachel, Cody-Jess. Boogie blatantly said he had no intention of being with Erika, so I never counted that.

[~2much~]

Uh oh Julie just stepped down from the talk And she did it and front of the Big Brother doors.

[Ladychef]

I feel so badly for her. It is a tough situation to be in.

[Millitarymom]

Made me tear up

[aprilshowers]

I just checked Twitter to see if there were any updates on the taped eviction. The RealVegas account has been suspended. Guess we wont get any spoilers tonight.

Anything interesting happen before the feeds went down?

[beckyd30]

Wonder why Real's twitter account is suspended, she/he wasn't posting that often anymore. Found them under TheRealVegas4Sure on twitter.

[TTOTambz]

It may be something unrelated. One of my writer's twitter account got suspended as well. Twitter has been doing this to accounts who've had any issues. Remember she(?) or whoever runs the account kind of got into it in a bit of a twitter war? That may have put a mark on the account so when Twitter cleans house those are the first they remove or suspend.

[herms is here]

Did anyone catch the conversation between JC and KC were she was suggesting that needs win the final 4 HOH. Could KC want a final 3 of Tyler and JC. I could go for that. I have been waiting all season for that.

I still don't quite understand why Tyler went back on his final 3 of himself, KC and JC. All season, when Tyler was telling Sam to trust him my husband would be in the background saying don't trust him, you are going to get hurt. And here she is having him stAb her in the back.

[TTOTambz]

I didn't get that read at all - JC told her if he wins HOH she is safe (Read: he'll nom Ang- Ty) This is several layers deep with JCs goals being:

1) Payback to Tyler for putting him on block
2) separating Ty-Angela
3) Making KC think she is his F2 so she'll be inclined to pick him over Tyler if she gets to chose at F3

He also went out of his way to tell her he NEVER talks game with Tyler - Kaycee knows very well that's BS b/c Tyler has kept her in the loop pretty much the entire game. The main thing I took from this is although Kaycee said - yeah it's your time to win that's ALL the encouragement she gave him. For example when he told her she was safe if he won HOH she said "thank you". Then after a very long uncomfortable silence she said you don't have to promise me that. (Read: I can't promise you that) lol

[beckyd30]

No one evicted yet, they don't know it's coming Julie hasn't shown up yet. Real's new Twitter acct is TheRealVegas4Sure. It appears the spammer added an extra "E" to the original Vegas' name and somehow now got the account suspended. According to the posts, evictions usually happen around 6 or 6:30, which is why they don't know yet is the guess.

[Lynette]

Thank you beckyd30 for letting us know about the new twitter account. This is verbatim what she posted...........No one has been evicted yet. The eviction will happen 6-630 as if it were done live. And no one has a clue if Julie is coming tonight or not. I HIGHLY suspect she WILL finish season but she sent producers a semi farewell note. TENSE!..........so that would be 9-930 ET.

[Yaya1300]

Omg are the rumors true about HOH? That is crazy and I can’t even imagine what the outcome
to this will be. Wow

[aprilshowers]

RealVegas is saying JC won HOH. Oh what will he do? Will be nominate Tyler

[SlowPoke]

If you're hearing that JC won it, that's what I just heard. Wow!