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**KeninVA** · 07-25-2015, 06:21 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

BB gods strike down the fortunate, The Twins confuse their closest allies (and me), and the stage is set for potential fireworks.

Yesterday, when Clay/Becky lost the BoB, the first link in the chain to Vanessa having another bad week was put in place. I said yesterday that the nom set up was not ideal, but had little downside. The first step down the primrose path was taken yesterday. The next very bad thing, will be if Austin wins PoV. He will may take Clay down, and Vanessa will have to show some fancy footwork to shift the target off Steve. She is not likely going to be able to do it, and with Steve’s nom, half her side game is likely to be exposed. I am on the fence as to whether this is the best outcome for her. When Austin goes up, Vanessa is the only one who has actually counted votes in her alliance. Jason, Meg, and Jackie, to reassure her, tell that with DM united they have the votes, even if James can’t bring himself to vote out Austin. They are all worried about a potential unknown twist, where America is reversing a HG’s vote. Vanessa counts off the available votes (6), removes James (5), and factors in this potential twist (4), and now Austin is staying and on the warpath. Comfort from unknowing fools is cold comfort to the informed.

On the one hand, Steve spilling secrets can be played off, and his influence in the house is nil. He is unlikely to gather forces, or prevent his eviction. It will damage Vanessa, as she has worked hard this past week to rebuild some trust, and position herself in the middle of DM, and the twins. That will likely be lost. Her biggest risk then becomes Austin surviving and winning HoH.

In that scenario, someone from DM (likely James) is going to rat out the plan for last week, and will put her in the center of it, as a way to curry favor, and keep themselves safe. Austin will target Vanessa, and the resulting chaos will draw new lines, with Vanessa likely on the downside of the hill.

One the other hand, when she noms Austin, all hell is going to break loose, with her in the middle of it.

She is in this position because she felt she had to win HoH. She explained to Austin, once Jmac was out, the only two people she was worried about were Jackie, and James. When James got Austin out via luck (a blind 33 percent chance of randomly hitting the right button), she did not want to put Jason against Jackie, because she did not want to compete against luck. She needed to go up against someone she could beat, not just survive against a dice roll. So, that is how she ended up letting Jackie become HoH, and going against Jason for the HoH. It is actually a very sophisticated analysis, performed under pressure, in a few minutes, while competing. For me, it is an impressive bit of logical reasoning, and one that is not obvious.

The Twins have confused Shelli, and Vanessa (and me). I expect the other HG’s to follow the wisdom of don’t tell Liz what the plan is, but Shelli and Vanessa promised Julia, they would fill Liz in when she came in the house. BB and Austin spoiled that plan, and Liz has yet to have a two on one with Vanessa/Shelli. This is bad, because A. Liz is becoming paranoid, and B. Vanessa will lose some trust with Julia, by not following through. The hesitation stems from the full on showmance that Liz displays with Austin. Julia says Liz is not into Austin, but from outward appearances, they can’t tell. Liz’s rolling eyes, and attempts to put off Austin pawing her, are the only outward signs that she is playing him, but none of the HG’s see that. And for me, even getting to see those signs of a push off, I am not 100 percent sure Julia’s read of Liz is dead on. Liz did throw the vote to keep Jeff. I hope Vanessa and Shelli, read Liz in, once PoV players are picked, especially if Liz is up to play for PoV. If Austin can’t play for PoV, then it is best to tell her before, and ask her to not win it. Let someone else take the heat. Vanessa needs Shelli to participate in this convo, both to bolster her veracity, and to make sure Shlay don’t spin the aftermath as something they had no idea was coming.

Things to watch today. Vanessa, Shelli talking to Liz, and Austin following like a puppy not so much to prevent any back channel deals, but to maximize time with his one true love. Aftermath of the PoV player pick. If Austin gets selected, Vanessa stress meter will redline again. Coupled with her aderall, there is a good chance Amanda 2.0 comes out.
Post PoV will set up the rest of the week. Even with Austin available to nom, and a hole on the block to slot him in, Vanessa is going stress and chew on that bone until Monday. If Austin wins PoV, the roiling in the house should lead to a lot of game action over the rest of the weekend.

Short notes:
Jackie is very cool under pressure, but partly driven by not having the full picture, and not being a very good vote counter.
Shelli and Clay both continue to impress with their social games.
Jason and Meg are all in on Clay, which should make Vanessa and Jackie nervous.

Sorry for the long analysis today, and as always, these are just my opinions.

**nonobadfish** · 07-25-2015, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by KeninVA

...Comfort from unknowing fools is cold comfort to the informed.
...

Morning geo and Ken (and everyone).
I was out last night and haven't any read or seen any updates (except for KeninVA's), so the only thing I know is that Clay/Becky lost BoB. When that news flashed up on my Big Brother Buddy app, my friend (who also watches) and I burst out laughing. I didn't want Vanessa to stay HoH so I was a little disappointed, but isn't it fun to have Clay (who was SO positive that he would beastmode this comp and win) sitting on the block. If Clay loses the PoV, is there ANY way...ANY way that Vanessa decides this is a serendipitous time to break up Shelli/Clay? Oh, how I'd laugh.

Two things:
1. I did see that Audrey is now tweeting (her account is @OddreyM), so she is NOT coming back in the house. (Yay for us!)
2. Ken's "Comfort from unknowing fools is cold comfort to the informed" is my favorite line of the month. I don't know if it's original or if you're quoting something, Ken, but I like it.

Okay...I'm off to see what the heck happened in the house last night (and how did James and Liz win??????? Best laid plans and all that.)

**Luanne** · 07-25-2015, 07:49 AM

Goodmorning Ken and everyone that follows--

I understand why Vanessa is so stressed. If anything goes wrong, she is left hanging with both sides. Clay and Shellie are so good with both sides and will play it to their advantage if something else does go wrong. They both lie very well. When the house is split into two sides and you are on both sides it is hard to play this game. You can not keep both sides happy. She really needs to think about what she wants to do. She has to get with Liz to make sure she would be ok with Austin going home. Which side would be the strongest to try and run to the end. Which side can win HOH to keep you safe. With large alliances, you run out of people to put up. She had to win HOH this week because she knew she was not safe with everyone. If the plan had worked, she would have been good. Now she knows she has to make a hard decision that could determine the outcome of her game.

Putting vibes out that Steve does not go home this week. Off to watch flashbacks.

**nonobadfish** · 07-25-2015, 07:54 AM

This was Audrey's first (and only so far) tweet. At least she's willing to laugh at herself....it's pretty clever. She already has over 10,000 followers since going live last night. I'm glad for her.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 08:13 AM

Morning, have to say thanks to Blogzee for the flattering marriage proposal from last night. Spoke to my significant other, aka Sgt. B & he's down for the honeymoon in Big Sur, but not so much for a permanent situation. Frankly, you gotta love a man who has a huge crush on Melissa McCarthy, so gotta stay with him. He even tolerates being a BB widower (but I'll spend the fall as a football widow, so balances out).

But made my morning reading it.

Thanks again!

**sdkgeo** · 07-25-2015, 08:19 AM

If I was Liz I think I'd stop sleeping with Austin just because of the snoring.

I can't really get a handle on her either. Is she just one of those girls that has to have a guy with her? Does she really trust him more than anyone else, even Vanessa? Did Julia tell her anything when they switched? Did it even register with her that Austin outed her out to Jason, who as far as she knows is on the other side and is targeting her?

She said she preferred Jeff to Austin, but as soon as Jeff is gone she is jumping on Austin.

I'm so confused, but I have a hard time calling him a creeper when she encourages it.

**Myragirl** · 07-25-2015, 08:23 AM

So yesterday played out similarly to the Frankie/BMC BOtB, the house knew the game plan going into BotB, but it did't work out. I have mixed feelings about it. On one hand, I find it scary because Vanessa is still my fav (even with all the possible Adderall-induced craziness), and I was hoping she would rebuild this turn as HoH. On the other hand, it is as you would say... MO MO DRAMA. This should translate to entertaining feeds, possibly until POV ceremony.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 08:27 AM

Pile on Austin week:

Now, Liz, stand in front of Austin, use both your hands to cover your face and say, "Where's Liz? Where did Liz go?" When Austin looks around and can't find you and starts sobbing, open your hands & reveal your face and say, "Boo, I'm still here!" Giggle at his startled face and relieved laugh.

Rinse, repeat all day long to the amusement of the other houseguests & viewers.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 08:47 AM

Liz has definitely been the wild card in the house, never following the script. She's able to play the twin thing into an advantage, when the early reveal would have been a quick evict in other seasons. She votes for Jeff after taping a message telling him he has to go, then hides it so well it throw shades on others.

Now she wins BOB when she was supposed to throw it. What did Julia tell her at the switch, since I thought Julia was down with the plan? She only tolerates Austin, but does the Brenchel leap into his arms? My only guess is that SHE wasn't ready to dump Austin since he's ready to take a bullet for her so is her meat shield AND she wanted to assure Julia makes it in, despite their personal issues. It makes her the center of a block if three, which is naturally better than two or one. Time will tell and she may have made a short term decision that will bite her in the butt long term, if Austin is voted out or Julia flips on her.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 09:02 AM

Now POV will determine the outcome.

Clay vs Becky, Clay goes
Clay vs Austin, Austin goes
Clay vs Steve, Steve goes
Becky vs Austin, Austin goes
Becky vs Steve, Steve goes

But, game is in flux, so other options can present themselves. And we were worried the game would be dull after Audrey left - ha ha.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 09:53 AM

Moving up is Jackie. Losing doesn't hurt her since she won't make the final decision. She's showing smarts and calm actions, and seems to be having a good effect keeping Vanessa much calmer than she would have been with Audrey stoking the fire.

Moving down is James with his blatant throwing of comps and obvious frustration with winning. Add his constant inappropriate sexual comments and his game is done. At very best he's just another goat.

Shelli & Clays Teflon holds, though has nicks since its possible for him to go home. Funny, but I think she'll do worse as a Have Not.

Austin continues to be blind. Watching Clay and him talk on last night's BBAD was kinda funny w/Austin having zero clue that he's THE target, not Steve.

He wins POV and Steve is toast and the schemers will be scrambling to cover their tracks. However, other players may see Clay as bigger target and may not pull him off if they win POV, despite Vanessas plans.

Vanessa has no choice now but to get Austin out. He will cripple her game as a nom with his info of her game. But if he stays in, he'll still learn that she targeted him and he'll laser focus on her and we've seen he doesn't do well if he thinks people aren't loyal to him.

And again, Liz/Julia remains the unpredictable wild card. How would Julia play in POV if chosen? No clue.

This could be on intense POV fight depending on players. Or could be a Beast Mode sit down if they are happy to let Clay & Becky duke it out.

Just like the players, my mind changes every few minutes.

**KittyBoodles** · 07-25-2015, 12:34 PM

I wonder if this season, the girls will kick out all the guys, and we'll have at least a F3 all girls. Hmm.

**Livzee** · 07-25-2015, 12:40 PM

This cast is like the sea... always in movement... I agree with KenVa (well we all do I think) that it's hard to know what's next. Alliances have almost no meaning.

**BettyBoo** · 07-25-2015, 12:44 PM

Oh, Lizzie, you better be careful or you'll be married to Austin before the end of your time in the house. And even worse, sometimes those marriages take!!

Its so funny, she reacted like Lucy when Snoopy kisses her.

What a conundrum. She doesn't want his attention, but his attention gives her an ally in the game. It's kinda like the creepy boss at a well paying job. Hobson's Choice.

Can't wait to hear POV players, so can handicap the race.

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