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**sdkgeo** · 07-29-2015, 05:54 AM

Morning all. Has Shelli gotten paranoid about Vanessa yet?

**KeninVA** · 07-29-2015, 06:07 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

The campaign to save Jason starts today.

Key elements: Throw James under the bus, if required to build credibility that Jason will never turn on Shelli/Clay.

Get Meg to ramp up Shelli paranoia about Becky.

Use the early lockdown to build suspicion that the HoH will be endurance, and Shelli/Clay need Jason to win to protect them.

Follow with Jackie promising undying fealty to Shelli/Clay.

This plan has all sorts of potential, given Shelli is fickle, and paranoid and plays with Vanessa who is paranoid, and indecisive. The saving grace may end up being Clay, who understands, we set this up, we need to decapitate ADC, and then get Jackie out. I don't think Shelli will cross Vanessa on a vote this early in the game, and I am sure that Vanessa understands the importance of the Jason boot, so I don't think this will work, but I admit, the flaw in my analysis from yesterday, is that it assumes the players are rational, and I am not sure anyone but John actually fits in that category in this house.

The downside risk is that Meg will have totally alienated James by trashing him to Shlay, which will also demonstrate why Shelli wanted to flip, they have no loyalty to each other.

Jackie will make an enemy of Becky, shifting her target off James, onto Jackie, and prove that her word does not mean anything, making Vanessa/Shelli/Clay look like upstanding citizens, while anything she would promise anyone else means nothing.

James is likely to come off looking the best, because I get the feeling he will not flip the vote.

The feeds should be fun, right now, and late tonight into the early morning hours.

Short notes: The paranoia of the ruling elite in the house is strong this year, much as in S11, after Jeff took power in the Coup D'Etat. That is a prime environment for major irrational play, which is unpredictable, and can't really be controlled from a game theory perspective. Which is a long way of saying MoDramaMama's gonna be happy.

**sdkgeo** · 07-29-2015, 06:41 AM

So, with Shelli and Vanessa, which one is April and which one is Keesha?

**sdkgeo** · 07-29-2015, 06:54 AM

So, Ken, What is your take on this Meg conversation with Shelli and Clay. Do you think it's having any impact. I guess we'll have to wait until Clay and Shelli are alone to find out.

**herms is here** · 07-29-2015, 07:03 AM

What time was the meg conversation with Shelli and Clay?

**Luanne** · 07-29-2015, 07:13 AM

Good morning all, I had a lot of reading to do this morning. Thanks to everyone for keeping me up to date. I am just about out of data for the month so not sure if I want to watch feeds today or wait till after HOH. I may just have to go over and pay that big fee.

A lot of good thoughts posted. I agree with so many. I like Jason and wanted him to get to jury but not at Steve's expense. I like Steve much better. Jason knows this game and should have been a better player. I think going into the house, they all know how they want to play the game, but their individual personalities come into play. Not being mean, Jason complains about his life outside the house and inside the house. However, he does very little to really change anything. He should have held the twin information and used it like Vanessa did. He likes to joke around and be everyone's friend. I think that is one of the reason he is still at home and not happy in his job. He is smart, should go to school, or try to move up in the grocery business. Steve knows his faults and continues to try to work on them. Jason has stated he has had some rough times but so has Steve. In this game, he has had people be rude to his face and has heard them talking about him. A lot of water off the shoulders as Steve stated. Steve has worked hard to stay in the game. He is still on a lot of radars but he has not given up.

Shelli is fun to watch. Several have stated in the past that they feel like she is fake. Someone even talked about her mean side. I am starting to see that. She wanted to save Austin, may not have wanted Jason as the re-nom but she was ok with it. Vanessa even told her that it would be drawing the line in the sand and was she sure she wanted to do that. I really think Vanessa would have kept Austin on the block and was torn about the decision. Shelli thought all the blame would fall on Vanessa and she would still be the Queen. Once Vanessa heard that Clay/Shelli was acting like they had no idea this was going to happen, she had to share the blame. Shelli is not happy since she is no longer the most loved in the house. Gone is that laugh, the compliments, and the fake smiles. It would not surprise me if she decided to switch and Clay will follow.

Today should be a good day to watch the action.

**nonobadfish** · 07-29-2015, 07:15 AM

After listening to the Meg/Clay/Shelli conversation (It was at around 4:00 am BBT, herms is here), I think saving Jason is still only a remote possibility. Clay/Shelli know that they have burned Jason and I don't think they will ever believe he could trust them again. BUT I love hearing the doubt about Vanessa in Clay and Shelli. Even if Jason goes home, I will enjoy it more if Vanessa/Clay/Shelli come out of this with distrust.

ETA: I didn't realize how much Clay doesn't trust James. Interesting. I think James would be the easiest for Shelli/Clay to swing to them. That seems like a bad read on Clay's part.

**nonobadfish** · 07-29-2015, 07:24 AM

As for the 6:00 am BBT lockin...that's early, and I hope it means an endurance that is made for small feet (Jackie and James, I'm looking at you.) They did not do an endurance last year while BoB was still going on, so most of the BB experts think they won't do one this year while BoB is going on (the take-down of endurance comps is longer, and they have to set up BoB.)

But I actually don't know why they couldn't pull off an endurance comp AND Bob. They would just have to have a less elaborate BoB set. They used to have Have Not comps after Endurance comps so I know it's possible.

(Due to Julia coming in, the number of HGs keeps them from pairing up for an HoH this week, same as last week. So I can't think of why TPTB would want to do an endurance this week. But you never know! Here's hoping.)

**BettyBoo** · 07-29-2015, 07:43 AM

Jason, be careful what you wish for. You wanted strong women in the house. Well you got a couple who are tossing your butt out early.

I see him as 'king' of the mean girls at home just as he is in the house. He can talk smack (like Becky is thick and Steve is a freak) and it makes him feel like he is more than the scrawny pimply gay boy who was picked on. By making others look small, he feels bigger. So as much as I enjoy his comments and have seen he understands so much, he spent too much time holding court, falling back to his lifestyle of talk rather than actions. By doing nothing he became the captain if his fate.

The show will be duller without his wit & wisdom.

**BettyBoo** · 07-29-2015, 07:53 AM

As a PS if Jason could pull off the ole switch-a-roo and stay, I'll be happy. I think Becky is a nice person, but she has no entertainment factor and is making very poor game decisions. Although, I doubt Jason could lead a successful revolt against the Borg, it would be more fun to keep him in the house than Becky.

**~smee~** · 07-29-2015, 08:04 AM

Random thoughts: 1) I like Jason, and get that he is hurting -- but I was still offended when he called Becky ''..this big thick girl...''.
2) Ever had that feeling that you are surrounded by a lot of people, but you are all alone? Poor Steve must be so lonely. He's playing a horrible game, but I still just want to give him a big hug.
3) Those of you who really understand this game say the Vanessa is playing great, so I believe you. But her manic talk, talk, talking is driving me nuts. So much energy wasted beating that dead horse...
4) I don't see Shelli's tactics displaying her as a mean girl -- just an extremely focused, egocentric one. That's what it takes to win this game. Don't know if I like her or not, just think she is looking out for herself first, as she should be.
5) Somebody tell me, why does Becky bug me so much? What has she done to annoy me every time I see, hear, or read about her?

And good morning, sdkgeo , KeninVA, nonobadfish, Luanne, @ BettyBoo and all who follow. I love reading your posts each morning (and throughout the day and night).

**BettyBoo** · 07-29-2015, 08:25 AM

As has been pointed out, last night there was Vanessa and Shelli discussing the direction of the game, while the hamsters were sitting around whining how they've been outplayed while blaming the wrong players. Ya got got, guys, and due to your self-inflicted blindness remain sitting ducks.

There will be several interesting fights, but the ultimate battle will be between the Queens. That will be an Alien vs Predator event. That week won't just be just good popcorn time, it'll be IMAX, put on your 3-D glasses and dodge the flying fists coming out of the screen time.

**BettyBoo** · 07-29-2015, 08:33 AM

Oh gosh, I just noticed I got the Full Monty of bars. Zowie, I'm running through the house like Kevin in Home Alone all excited. Thanks to all you likers. (As the HGs say) you knoooooooooow I like like you like you knoooooooow!

**Luanne** · 07-29-2015, 08:37 AM

smee- great thoughts. I do not think Vanessa is playing a great game. I still like her for some reason. I would like to see her stay in the game but calm down. She is doing some things right. I laughed when James said (after Vanessa asked him about the I) you know when Vanessa ask a question, she has a reason. When she is not HOH she is not very talkative. It is only when she is HOH that she can not stop. I guess her brain will not stop. I think she is still looking for her one to the end. I think she thought she had it in Austin until he fell in love. She knows Steve is on everyone's list. I think she was feeling Jackie out but got nothing back.

Until this week, I felt like Shelli was playing the best game. She did not expect to be blamed for the change in plan. I do not think the others have connected the dots yet that Clay/Shelli had several F4/F5 deals. With Jeff/Jackie-- Meg, Jason, James,---- Austin/twins/ Vanessa,------ Johnny/Becky. They just picked up Steve. I think if they ever do, this will help Vanessa. She has only done short terms deals and has been loyal to her alliance. Of course she broke the deal with the "8" but explained that none of them were with her till she got HOH.

I can not tell you why Becky bugs you, because she does me. I think she has actually turned some deals down. When she won the HOH that was fast, she impressed me but has gone back to the back burner.

I think this is a good year, not a season 6 but a good year.

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