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**sdkgeo** · 08-04-2015, 05:57 AM

Morning all. So Clay and Shelli are campaigning to stay behind each others back or by proxy? I think that's what I've gathered after a quick skim. It doesn't look like Clay will get the votes to stay, but who knows what will happen by Thursday.

**aprilshowers** · 08-04-2015, 06:30 AM

Steve talking to us in the backyard after talking to Shelli and Clay. He is on board for voting out Clay. He also said his target would be Becky in the Double eviction.

Guess Clay will be shown the door on Thursday.

This happened about 4:28 BB time.

**KeninVA** · 08-04-2015, 06:47 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

The house has settled down. I am not sure Clay is actually campaigning, as people reading into his boorish, and childish behavior that he is conducting the anti-campaign, and so they think it is some master ploy. Clay is too dumb for that. He just assumes that because he is a. a guy, b. good looking, c. friendly with everyone, and d. out of the loop that Shelli will be the boot. The fact that Shelli is actively working to stay in the house is not being shared, partly because Mom does not want junior to know, she is helping to fill the bathtub, and positioning the hairdryer next to it.

Short notes:

Steve tells us he wants to win HoH, and will nom Shelli and Becky as the target.
Steve is playing James, giving him mis-info, and getting cover from James to vote to keep Shelli if he wants, since James thinks he controls the votes.

Liz plays scared, and is stressing over the vote. Liz and Austin are condescending towards Julia's game play, with Austin telling Liz, we have to tell to not talk to anyone but us (game). Liz agrees to talk to her.

Vanessa points out to Austin, stop being scared, you are in Jury, so anyone who crosses you or the twins will lose three jury votes. Austin takes that on board, passes it to Liz, and so they relax..

Right now, Julia is the safest person in that house, and would survive a trip to the block against anyone.

Vanessa is in the 2nd worst spot of her alliance, only marginally surviving a face off against Shelly.

Jackie is in win or go home territory next week. Jmac is also close to that.

Vanessa and Austin make the decision to out Becky as the Rat, after HoH. They don't know how yet.

I expect Vanessa to make the rounds of her team, keeping them in line and not afraid of next week. They control the house, and she has now pulled out Freaks and Geeks controls the outcome of the game, if they stay loyal to each other, they will be either a 3, 4, or 5 block to vote for the winner. She made sure Austin and the Twins heard that, gaming with them last night on the hammock.

James still thinks they have control of the house, and that Austin, the twins, and Steve are now rolling with ADC (they are all playing him). Austin cools Vanessa down on blindsiding the vote, and is going to tell James, along with the twins, that for their games, they can't keep Clay in the house. Liz is worried, because despite her denials to Vanessa, she did promise her vote to James for keeping off the block. Julia as well, who is not so worried about it.

Not much to see today, as all the action of this crew doesn't seem to start up until midnight, BBT, but Austin did say today was the tell James, voting out Shelli makes no sense.

**nonobadfish** · 08-04-2015, 06:48 AM

Morning geo, Ken, and everyone! I really have to work today (unlike yesterday where I found ways to watch the feeds). Sigh. And yes, geo...I think you're right. Clay and Shelli are campaigning passively. Interesting if the other finds out. At the moment Clay is being voted out, but he thinks he's staying. Going to be fun to watch.

Does anyone know what Steve really thinks? In his talk with James last night, you can tell James is real with him and I think Steve appreciates that. Steve seems real with JMac. He's somewhat real with Vanessa, but I don't know if I believe that one quite as much as I believe Steve with James or JMac. I really only believe Steve when he's talking to the camera.

From last night's trusted conversations, these are the votes and targets for Thursday:

Steve: Vote out Clay. Nominate Shelli/Becky. Becky as target.

Jackie: Vote out Shelli. Nominate Vanessa/Shelli. Both are targets.

Meg: Vote out Shelli. Nominate Vanessa/Shelli. Both are targets.

Shelli: Can't vote. Nominate James, Jackie or Meg. James is target.

Austwins: Vote out Clay. Nominate Shelli/JMac or Jackie. JMac is target. (This can SO change. These 3 fluctuate by the minute).

*Vanessa: Vote out Clay. Nominate Shelli or Steve/JMac or Jackie. JMac or Jackie are targets.

Becky or JMac: No clue. I think with Clay now wanting to stay, they both vote out Shelli, but not sure. I think Becky might target Vanessa, but no clue yet on JMac.

According to this list, vote would be 5-4 to evict Clay.

*Vanessa has her deal with James to consider, and IF she keeps the deal, she supposedly won't nominate him or another person of his choice. But she was already saying last night that she would keep the deal UNLESS she finds "credible evidence" not to. If she wins HoH, get ready for "Give me a reason....I need a reason." again.

**BettyBoo** · 08-04-2015, 07:03 AM

When I look at this group all I can think is the word 'ninconpoops'. Most have no clue of the ramifications of their game decisions. Vanessa probably had the best handle, but she fumbled last week with the Jason backdoor and it lead to her issues this week. James is second and his reasoning is calmer and he's less swayed. It means we have no clue at this moment how the vote will go. I think Clay will go by a split vote, but it can all change by one hurt feeling.

I would absolutely love a landslide to see Shelli depart and for Julie to do the "By a vote of 7 to 2, Clay (dramatic pause for close-up of Shelli' s triumphic smirk) you are safe." Then they'll have to drag out a snarling Shelli as she blames everyone but herself. Then we see them all gather around the pictures and Clay wraps himself around Meg and says loudly, "Phew, thanks guys." The interview consists of Julie wearing protective eye wear to block the death rays. Oh, BB gods, so it is written, so it be done?

**DeeAnneG** · 08-04-2015, 07:06 AM

nono, I really hope that Vanessa never, EVER wins HOH again. The only reason ever needed is "It's best for my game". Hers aren't reasons, they are excuses.

**Kpercyman** · 08-04-2015, 07:08 AM

Okay just read James HOH letter and it made me cry. I cry very easily. Now I want Shlay to be exposed to each other for campaigning. Maybe then Clay would take back his word and start to campaign against Shelli.

The JJ Train is in full force.

**Twirlly** · 08-04-2015, 07:13 AM

Good morning, BBU.

It took me so long to really get interested in this season then BAM! I'm fully vested!! The last week has certainly been worth the price of admission plus some.

With this group flipping and flopping I don't think it is a given that Clay goes on Thursday. I think there is uncovered info that if exposed may sway the votes at the last minute. As of now, I think the vote is a toss up. I think the only solid votes are Jackie and Meg voting out Shelli. Maybe by Thursday morning the votes will be solidified, but until then we will see a dozen changes in direction. I don't think we will see much today; tomorrow will be the full court press.

**nonobadfish** · 08-04-2015, 07:15 AM

I'm not as good as Ken or others at the analytical side, so I often come up with only gut feelings. My gut tells me that Austwins are not set in stone on anything. If I were betting, I'd say they vote out Clay. But I also think that could change fast. In listening to them, they go in circles about what is best to do. They want to keep Shelli, but they want to honor James as well so that they can keep their options open. At 9:45ish last night they had flipped back to voting the way James wants, but within the hour they were back to voting out Clay. Then the next hour they were waffling again because Liz/Julia promised James. Then they flipped back to voting out Clay. There is a LONG time until Thursday's vote.

My gut also says that Austwins are now enamoured with their own power and this will be an issue that will hurt them. They think the fact that they hold 3 votes in the house AND in jury gives them extra sway over everyone which gives them the permission to do what THEY want. There is a natural inclination to stay with Vanessa (and I think they are in their hearts), but they also are doing their very best to straddle the fence and will come down on the side of who wins HoH next week. So while they know their safety is with Vanessa, they (dangerously) think they're okay without her (if need be). The Austwins are going to get in trouble down the road.

I think Vanessa sees this as well. She's too good not to notice, and that's what has caused her to question Shelli about them and to also have to touch base and remind them often of their goal. I won't be surprised if we all get to witness the "Legend of Austwins and The Power of Three" grow and grow in the trio of Austwin's minds.

**nonobadfish** · 08-04-2015, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by KeninVA View Post

That maybe what she is telling Shelli, who is not a trusted confidant, anymore at least, but 2 nights ago, when she asked Liz in front of Austin and Julia, ''You didn't promise him your vote, did you?'' and Liz lied to her and said no, she told them the parameters of her deal, and said I specifically left out backdoor from it.

KenInVA, Shelli isn't Vanessa's trusted confidante? She trusts Austwins more? Gracious. That may be a big mistake. But regardless, it doesn't matter what Vanessa says to any of them. If she wants James to go, she will find a reason to do it, deal or no deal, no matter what the parameters are. So it really doesn't matter. I was most laughing at her "unless I find credible evidence' statement.

She's not acting like James is her target. I think she's focused on JMac (or perhaps Jackie) according to her statements to Austwins and Shelli separately. She can have Jackie, but she needs to stay clear of my JMac.

It was very interesting that she said to Austwins that she needed to get rid of JMac because he would side with Shelli. Doesn't she want to pull JMac in for the numbers until she doesn't need him anymore?

I have to go for real now. Sigh. Y'all have fun today!

**KeninVA** · 08-04-2015, 08:22 AM

Just putting down a marker. James' HoH is going to be a fail. He will exit the week with as big a target as he started with, he will not have fractured SS (chinks in the armor don't count, he needed to reorder the house, and did not do it), and will actually help SS by removing the toxic presence of Clay who was never on their side, and did not like them. If he had taken Clay and Shelli's deal, and pulled Shelli, and replaced her with Vanessa, the house would have been re-ordered. Clay/Shelli would have aligned with James and Meg, plus Jackie, on the face of it, and been aligned with JMAC/Becky in secret. Austin and the twins would have floated to James, I think, and Steve would still be on an island. James failure to really play out every eventuality, when he had a limited opportunity to effect maximum change, is going to be a fail. When we look back at the season, this will be a pivotal moment in the game.

**Ladycop** · 08-04-2015, 08:57 AM

While listening to conversations with Austin, the twins, and Vanessa I have come to realize just what some of you ahead of me said today.....Austin/Liz/Julia did calm down once it was pointed out to them that they were the "power of 3" and I couldn't help but think about Dear Old Shelli/Clay who sat on a hammock last week believing that they were safe because they had deals with everyone in the house. I'm not sure how Austin got to be a 30 year old man without any awareness of self or surroundings. He has to psych himself up all the time by trying to convince himself and the twins that he knows what is going on and how to handle it. He would be scary as HOH as he would be all over the place, until he gets his meds. Me thinks his brains have been scrambled at least one too many times! He believes he is going to resurrect a career that at best was in the minor leagues (as we all know he never made it to the majors ie, WWE).

I find his information about just about anything interesting because he delivers it with such authority but I've seen people like that before. If you say it in the right tone you hope others will buy it and not question it. Liz and Julia are conundrums for me. Liz states that she likes Austin as a friend but he is too ugly, she doesn't like his hair or beard, etc. and yet she wrapped herself around him and allows him to do the same whenever possible. Does she not realize that this isolates her from the game and others and she must rely on him for her information? Now Austin is trying to do the same to Julia who does join in on group discussions, by telling them both on the hammock last night that they must not talk game with anyone other than themselves. Once again, we see Austin and his problem with control issues and probably the reason that he doesn't have girlfriends in the "real world". I must touch you at all times, you must obey me at all times, and you must believe me at all times.

I would have loved to see Vanessa and Derrick play this game together, or has Vanessa studied Derrick ploy to help her in this game. What a battle those two would have had because both played to keep everyone under their magic spell. I think that to a very great extend she does control the house and she does not stress over things that have gone on before. It's over and done with is her model and she moves on. Her give me a reason, could be her downfall if she wants to boot someone but can't find one....but then again she is good at talking herself into believing anything she wants to. She is one cool customer and I think she wins this game if someone doesn't wake up very soon, but who would that person be, as I think most of others are targets way ahead of her. Steve is Vanessa Victoria. He is her ace in the hole to take to F2 as she can then point out to all that she played a better game than he and I think he is loyal to her (at least to this point). She like Derrick sat down and picked out the one person who was isolated from the others. I hope that this group doesn't go the way of Derrick's game last year as it was boring but we must stay tuned.

**Ladycop** · 08-04-2015, 09:17 AM

I forgot to say that Liz knows she is the head of her alliance with Austin. She likes to demonstrate it, both to herself and to her house mates. I'm hungry Austin and he jumps and runs to make slop. Oh, Austin you are getting good at handstands, do it again and her pet monkey does his trick for her.

**Delvoire** · 08-04-2015, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by BettyBoo View Post

When I look at this group all I can think is the word 'ninconpoops'. Most have no clue of the ramifications of their game decisions. Vanessa probably had the best handle, but she fumbled last week with the Jason backdoor and it lead to her issues this week. James is second and his reasoning is calmer and he's less swayed. It means we have no clue at this moment how the vote will go. I think Clay will go by a split vote, but it can all change by one hurt feeling.

I agree 100% with the 'ninconpoops' comment. Especially if they decide to keep Shelli. Like Vanessa said, they are all in Jury now, so what good would it be to keep Shelli? She is the obvious stronger person out of that duo and keeping her in the game doesn't help anyone. Clay may slide to Meg? I'm not sure what strengths Clay brings aside from a physical one, but Big Brother isn't the most physical game. That's not the strength that normally wins this game ie. Andy.

If anyone in this house keeps Shelli, they are just asking to walk out that door the next week or so when she'll win another HoH and send them packing. Either that or she convinces Vanessa, Austin, Liz, Julia, Johnny Mac, Becky, or possibly anyone else to do her bidding. Keeping the Black Widow is just not a wise plan, IMO.

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