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**sdkgeo** · 08-09-2015, 06:18 AM

Morning all. This season is just the gift that keeps giving. This should be a fun week and no matter what happens at the first eviction on Thursday, it's all good.

Steve wins Veto and Vanessa is the plan to go on the block. But will all go as planned?

**KeninVA** · 08-09-2015, 07:18 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

Jmac comes out in force, Becky maneuvers for her end game, and Vanessa is stepping to a blindside?

Lots has changed since Friday. Steve is now a question mark for me, as to what his end game plans are. It has become clear, Jmac is 1 on this affinity list, and Vanessa was number 2, but does that remain the same, or is he going to be all in on Shelli, Jmac, Steve? I don't know. I think, without one of his patented mumble sessions to the camera, we are not going to really know, at least not me. I think the fact that he is aware that Becky would be a part of that group gives him pause.

Becky's planned nomination speech is interesting to me, since what she accuses Vanessa of, flip flopping to power, and plotting to backstab Shelli, was actually her game. I am sure she is hoping to elicit an emotional response from Vanessa at the Nom ceremony or immediately afterwards. Whether Vanessa obliges is anyones guess.

Steve, who had amazingly said he planned to throw the veto did not. I am sure his change of plan was due to Jmac not playing in veto, and his fear that he would end up left on the block, with someone who would stay behind in the eviction. Jmac has done a good job of stabbing Vanessa to him, but how much Steve actually buys, versus just listening for info, is an unknown. Vanessa had told him that "the group" had planned to put Jmac or him up as a floater, and had reviewed the bidding, including who she viewed as floating. So, I don't think Steve was actually caught by surprise. And of course, Becky shared the plan with him.

Becky is working hard to preserve Shelli and deflect further attacks on her, to move the target to Austin or the Twins in the coming double. Has she actually turned Shelli against Vanessa, or is Shelli doing her best ride the middle, we don't know. I think Shelli is the most accomplished free agent right now, with the possibility of Steve, Jmac, Becky, as a foursome, going against Austwins, and ADC (the Goblins, AKA James, Meg, Jackie).

Vanessa senses she is a potential target, but James has started lying to her, and Becky is re-enforcing "the plan", and Vanessa shows no outward sign of realising she will be betrayed. But she does tell Austin, if I am betrayed, I will make it my mission to make sure Becky cannot win. Based on Jason's post eviction comments, about how genuine he found Vanessa, I don't take it as an idle threat. The Jury Phase has started, and as Dan learned in Season 14, jurors don't like being played, hard. Becky will have to backstab ADC all the way to the end game, all the while proclaiming her fidelity to them.

Vanessa will go on the block tomorrow. The hill she has to climb is with Steve, whose vote she has to keep, and with James and to a lesser extant Jackie, who I think is too emotionally vengeful over the Jeff boot, to think through the game.

For James, in my mind, booting Shelli absolutely makes the most game sense. He believes Vanessa will keep a deal, and she, I am sure will offer a good one. In addition, he must know he can't make a deal with Shelli, no matter what anyone tells him. I am sure Vanessa will point that out. In reality, Jackie should follow Jame's logic, and should be suspicious when Becky runs her game to let Shelli go through the next Double, and instead target Austwins, who have not proven good competitor's nor have they been particularly hostile to either her, or to James. Since they don't have a problem breaking deals, they could take Vanessa out in the double, while buying a lot of insurance for themselves from Vanessa and the Austwins. Vanessa's hill is that James is becoming focused on booting Vanessa, which tends to one track his thought process, making him inflexible, and as previously stated, Jackie is definitely holding a personal grudge against Vanessa.

Vanessa's next hurdle would be Steve, who is drawn to Jmac, and has to weigh being on the bottom of a Shelli, Jmac, Becky alliance, vs feeling like he is on the bottom of a Vanessa, Austwins, alliance (I say feels, because Vanessa has not actually ever harmed him in the game, and I am still not sure that she wants him as F2, though Steve is afraid that Vanessa at the end, wins the game).

So, for today, I don't actually expect much game, at least there should not be much game, but Vanessa continues to surprise me. Mainly Becky reinforcing Shelli's lack of threat, and Vanessa's untrustworthiness. Jmac will work Steve, and Shelli will continue to smile and proclaim loyalty to all. If Vanessa does not meltdown today, then all the action will occur post nom ceremony tomorrow. I expect Vanessa will throw Becky under the bus hard, with James, and if I was her, I would get Meg and James in a room, and go through the Jason boot timeline, by the minute. Since Jackie and Meg know Becky is already talking about leaving Shelli in the game, that has potential to raise a lot of red flags. But, we won't know the actual plan, until the event.

ETA: Late add. Just watched Shelli and Steve talking. Steve is all in with Shelli. Vanessa's game is done. Shelli, Becky, Jmac, Steve have very good odds of being the final 4 at this point, as long as the Becky - Steve axis is not connected until F6.

**BettyBoo** · 08-09-2015, 07:30 AM

Found a quote from Jordan Peels (from Tweet last summer):

Big Brother is like a sleep-away camp for sociopaths.

**Luanne** · 08-09-2015, 07:47 AM

Good morning all- Ken, another good analysis. I agree with everything you stated. I hate losing Vanessa but can see where she destroyed her game. Not sure who I will pull for besides Steve. I like James, but it is hard to pull for James, Meg, and Jackie. They continue to miss clues right in their face. They should realize that Becky is wanting to save Shelli. If the three of them wanted Shelli out last week, they should want her out this week. James should know that Shelli will be gunning for him. I am so disappointed in Austin. Is he throwing all the comps or is he that bad. It should be a slow day today but jumping Monday afternoon.

**BettyBoo** · 08-09-2015, 08:12 AM

Wish we could see the Veto ceremony live tomorrow. If they can keep the secret for the day, the back door should be classic. But, I suspect that Vanessa is not feeling secure despite the reassurances, so won't be totally shocked. Johnny needs to put on his worried face as his part of the performance.

Shelli as always will happily kiss another supposed team-mate adios. Like Derrick, the longer she stays in the more dangerous she becomes. She has managed to bewitch all but maybe James, Jackie, and Steve into protecting her.

So Vanessa will go nuts, throwing Shelli under the bus and backing up and running over her again and again. Meanwhile the Ice Queen will act like she doesn't know what she's talking about, innocent Shelli could NEVER do that bad stuff. Vanessa will offer anything to stay, but will find out the truth everyone knows in Vegas: the house always wins. She bet on Austin and lost.

I would love a tie vote, so Becky would have to show her Shelli preference. If I was in the house I'd be nervous of how easily and efficiently she can lie. Wouldn't trust her word if I was a team mate.

But for we fans, darn good tv. It's hilarious how we all stopped our lives yesterday to breathlessly await the Veto results. You would have thought man was landing on the moon. We'll be just as anxious tomorrow to see the post-ceremony fall-out. Never a dull summer.

**Blogzie** · 08-09-2015, 08:24 AM

I think after the chat between Steve and Shelli in the wee hours of the morning, Stealthy Stevie is now under her spell as well. It must be her tungsten teeth.

**TTOTambz2** · 08-09-2015, 08:36 AM

Hey Ken, wondered what your thoughts were in regards to Shelli selecting Vanessa to compete in POV in terms of why Becky & JMac didn't seem phased by that?

**~Linden~** · 08-09-2015, 09:09 AM

Good morning BBUers. It's 9:05 on Sunday morning and Shelli is on the block and Vanessa is all but on the block. All is right in my world.

I think Vanessa goes in the first part of the DE and either Liz or Becky goes in the second part depending on who wins the second all powerful HOH. I'm good either way.

Becky has drawn a pretty big target on herself for the SS. All of them will be gunning for her now.
And ADC will have to go after Liz as the lynch pin in the Austwin alliance.

All of this will happen after 4 days of GLORIOUS drama from Shelly and Vanessa. It's gonna look like Freddy Kruger broke into that house. There's gonna be blood on the ceiling. Mwa ha ha!

**Blogzie** · 08-09-2015, 09:09 AM

KeninVA commenting on Betty Boo's post said:

"And I agree, betting on Austin was a fatal error. She should have let him go."

This was in response to Betty Boo saying that Vanessa bet on Austin and lost.

Okay, I have a thought. I know, it's rare, but I do occasionally get them.

We are now more than half-way through this season. And it's been a really good one.
After this Thursday's DE there will be nine players left in the house.

Austin will be one of them.

Speaking of fatal errors...

You do realize this means that Austin could possibly win this season?

I knoooooow-uh...

It's a mortifying thought!

Please someone, anyone, tell me that he doesn't have a chance in hell.

I've got to go and apply a cold compress to my brain.

I just hate it when I have thoughts.

**KeninVA** · 08-09-2015, 09:47 AM

Before I head off to real life, what I think Vanessa should do (not that she will do this, I only get half of her brain.). Given her suspicions, she should be spending some time today, imagining the moment of getting put on the block. This visualization technique allows her to experience some of the emotion ahead of time. That will keep her head clear, so that she can observe the other players around the table. In fact, I would try to practice not looking at Becky why she is talking, and instead try to focus attention on each other player, to see if they all knew, including Shellie and Steve. James, Meg and Jackie will probably be easiest to read, as I expect Meg will give her blank stare, Jackie will smirk, and James will have a hard time looking at her.

Then, she needs to remain calm, take it as the game move it is meant to be, and accept the offered hugs, and condolences. She should then shore up Austin and the twins, and then feel Steve out, both for what he knew, and what direction he is leaning in.

Then she needs to get the ADC minus Becky, alone, and totally go through the game she has played with Clay and Shelli and Becky. (the Generals). She can totally pull Austin's name in as an early betrayer (not winning the PoV in her first HoH). But, she knows Shelli's and Clay's game. The point of revealing Shelli's game is not to drive the bus directly over Shelli, but to point to public actions, that helped them, and Becky, when she was HoH. Jeff was done at Austin and Clay's behest. Leave out Austin, but not Clay. Becky was in an alliance with her and Shlay. Shelli and Clay threw Austin under the bus, but not Becky. Shelli asked Vanessa not blow Becky's game before the Clay boot, which Vanessa wanted to do initially. I think at each step, she needs to acknowledge that she was not just helping them, but herself.

Then she needs to walk them through the Jason boot timeline. All of it, and the multiple times she offered to go through with the Austin nomination. She can get Liz to potentially help her corroborate that she was going to still nom Austin at 3 a.m. on Monday morning. The effort here is to not damage Austwins game, but to make sure they see the connections to Becky that Shelli and Jmac have. If Vanessa has even an inkling that Steve was in on this betrayal, he should go under the bus as well. Not by outing any discussion, but by ensuring they do not discount the close relationship between Jmac and Steve.

I would then offer a F6 deal to the three of them, no noms, no backdoors, pointing out she kept Jackie in the game, despite pressure from Clay, Shelli, and Becky. Then, I would point out the game advantage for them of removing two threats with one vote. And then ask them to think about it, and let her talk to them again later.

I expect Meg will be worried, since she views Vanessa as a witch, and Jackie will be dismissive, but James, if unpressured, will listen. And that might turn things around for her.

It might not keep her in the game, but it might, and it very well could help Austwins, going forward.

**Blogzie** · 08-09-2015, 09:51 AM

Austin's Top Ten Strategies For Winning Big Brother.

10. Groping and pawing.

9. Eating mass quantities of protein.

8. Not showering or washing his hair.

7. More groping.

6. Never wearing a shirt.

5. Ditching his Judas alter-ego.

4. Being Vanessa's whipping boy.

3. More pawing.

2. Throwing every comp he's played in.

And Austin's Number One Strategy For Winning Big Brother:

1. Constantly obsessing over his hair.

**BettyBoo** · 08-09-2015, 09:59 AM

Hey Blogzee, had to giggle when in my head I heard James asking what's the French for mon dieu. Oh Mylanta.

**Livzee** · 08-09-2015, 10:28 AM

Thanks to everyone on here for your analysis... My summertime morning paper. Vanessa has encountered the perfect storm. If she hadn't gone ballistic on JMac, he would have stayed in the shadows. Steve has chosen sides, but even if not, Jmac, James, Meg, Jackie is all it takes to out her bc Becky will surely boot her. Though she's a great player, Vanessa's annoying house blasting got on nerves and exposed her schematic. I like James Jackie and Meg but together their strengths do not meld, and they are staying too isolated.

**BettyBoo** · 08-09-2015, 10:53 AM

Austin can win. At this point in the game who would have expected Jordan or Rachel to win their seasons? Survive the DE and the triplets are a stronger block as numbers diminish. Have a weak player like Meg or unliked players like Becky or Steve in the final two and he could get the needed 5 votes.

Right now Shelli is in the cat bird seat with a resume of not only 2 successful HOH s, but probably surviving twice when she should have gone home. But, unlike Derrick, she is considered a visible target, so could remain in danger. Anyone is one wrong move away from a fatality this season. Shelli survived last week because of Clay wanting out. Austin survived since other targets were considered more important. The unsettled nature of this season sure makes it intriguing to watch.

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