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**sdkgeo** · 08-14-2015, 05:49 AM

Good Morning all. Not the results I wanted to find this morning, but I am keeping an open mind.

I don't really know where the twins heads are at.

**sdkgeo** · 08-14-2015, 06:16 AM

Apparently Austin knows Vanessa was a poker player and won a lot of money. Who knew.

**nonobadfish** · 08-14-2015, 06:33 AM

Good morning, geo....not the results I wanted either (gracious, Liz can be a mean girl, can't she?). But we had two great weeks, so I guess it's only fair that we have a bad week. I am afraid to turn on my feeds because the idea of Austin and Liz in the HoH is too much for my eyes/ears. (Think what he was like in public....can you imagine in private?).

And now, sadly, I read that they want to go after JMac and keep Becky so that she can take Vanessa out next week.

So great...of all the people, they want to keep Becky? Yuck. Go JMac. Win PoV!!!!!

**Ladychef** · 08-14-2015, 06:52 AM

When I read that Vanessa came up with the name Austin's Angels I threw up a little bit in my mouth!!! Gross! And nono is so right- all that icky petting (or more) in the HOH bedroom.

**nonobadfish** · 08-14-2015, 06:54 AM

Hey guys....are we selling Austin short? We're in single digits in the house and he's still no one's target, never been on the block, and he's sitting pretty with everyone (except maybe Julia). Is he playing a better game than I thought? Or is he just dang lucky? He could win this thing.

**KeninVA** · 08-14-2015, 06:58 AM

Morning geo, Nono, and all who follow.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Steve's surprise HoH win, eviction of Jackie, and Liz's follow on HoH win, could be viewed as the house returning to the previous condition, minus Shelli and Clay. But, underlying forces are transforming the game. Right now, the battle is shaping up to be between Austin and Vanessa, for the loyalty of the twins, the direction of the end game, and who will leave the house first.

I left the feeds right after Becky had gone up to the HoH, and spilled all she knew about the Jason boot week. Including that James threw the BoB, and that Vanessa knew that was the plan. I am almost sure I remember Vanessa talking to Julia about it, so I think she actually knows, but her social game is very good, and she reveals nothing to Austin, so I don't have a read on what she really is thinking.

Vanessa's suspicions about Austin are not paranoia, they are based on an accurate read of Austin's ill intentions towards her game. Austin made the Brass Tacks alliance with TBM and Austwins, and with Jackie's boot, he goes right back to it. His endgame is J/M with Liz, Julia and himself, let J/M cut Julia at the end stage. he does not say that, but it must be his plan. Vanessa is along for the ride, but can be taken out anytime after this week. (As mad as Liz appears to get, I still don't see a scenario where Liz puts Vanessa on the block in a backdoor.).

When F&G met, the plan was put Becky and Jmac up, and vote Becky out. At 3 a.m. this morning Austin's plan, with Liz on board, was put Becky and Jmac up, and vote out Jmac, with help from Meg/James.

This is a strategic blunder for Austin of epic proportions, since it will allow Becky to reform with James and Meg, Steve is a wild card, but was immediately forgiven for putting Jackie out. (similar to what happened with Ian, when he shot at Frank, in the double in S14. All the heat went on Dan and Brit). Austin, for all his tactical skills, is a terrible strategist, and moves from a fear based view of the game. And his read of Meg and James is not that good. They will have no trouble cutting him to keep Becky, and then the twins, if Vanessa is gone, will be lost.

But, Austin sent Vanessa out to make a deal with Jmac, Steve, and her to pull them in with the twins. This is a trap, for her, so that Austin can point out Vanessa making another deal, but excluding J/M from the deal, while she is included as the disposable 6th member of Brass Tacks.

In Vanessa's view of the game, she, Austin, and the Twins are tight group of 4, with Austwins making a bigger and bigger target of themselves. While she has encouraged Julia and Liz to not be so tightly grouped with Austin, they have ignored that, and in fact, ignored her advice to Liz to take the HoH meetings alone. Vanessa wants to form a trio with Jmac, and Steve, and would ride to the end with both of them (so she says, but not in a deal making way.. it was game discussion with Steve, about the potential for the 3 of them to be aligned, with Vaustwins).

This grouping, Jmac/Steve/Vanessa insulates her from an attack by Meg/James since if two of them go up, Vanessa would theoretically get the votes of Vaustwin to stay in the house. What she has missed is that for Austin, she is now 5th on his Affinity list, below Liz, Julia, James, and Meg. She should be able to ride out a face off against Steve or Jmac, but being that far down an affinity list, lets other factors, like building trust with an HoH, override the affinity list placement.

James and Meg are reasonably safe this week, with James more vulnerable then Meg. Becky is still in quite a bit of trouble, as she will be on the block, no one will be playing for her, Jmac is this minute, in the most trouble, but has the potential for Steve, and Vanessa playing to pull him off the block. Vanessa is at low risk, but it is possible, Liz makes an emotional decision egged on by Austin, and backdoors her.

The game is still wide open, IMO, with the likely evictee being Jmac, followed by Becky, and Vanessa a very distant third.

**nonobadfish** · 08-14-2015, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by KeninVA

Nono, Vanessa pulled a Gheesling, and while Meg was on the block, made a deal to vote to keep her. No social context in her game at all. Everything is transactional

Ken....last night I asked what Vanessa had done during the DE that made Meg/James/Becky so angry, and you answered with this. The board was going so fast that I couldn't ask you to explain it. When you get a minute, will you tell me what "no social context in her game" means when you say it? I think I have a grasp of it...but I'd like to understand it clearer. Do you suppose this is why I can't warm up to Vanessa? I appreciate how smart she is, but her game makes no sense to me. I'm not being mean....I simply can't like her because her game doesn't click with the way my mind works. And I wonder if the "no social context" may be where my disconnect is. (That, and she has NO sense of humor).

No hurry on this...just whenever you get time.

**Walleye** · 08-14-2015, 07:13 AM

Well, I went out to my garage this morning and got a set of welders glasses. I'm using them to watch the HOH cameras.

**nonobadfish** · 08-14-2015, 07:18 AM

I saw a post last night from KeninVA (before I had to give up and go to sleep) where he said this has been one of his Top 3 favorite seasons. It's been one of mine, too, and I don't really have someone I love, love, love in it like Dani D or My Brit. (Yes, I'm a big JMac fan, but I will be okay if he goes. When My Brit was voted out, I grieved for a week.)

Seriously, have we ever had a season where we truly didn't know from week to week what will happen? It's been fab. And truly, everyone still has a chance. Amazing.

I wonder if this will be the year that even the Returning House Guest has a chance to win? I actually think it might be....they're playing the game differently, and the way the alliances keep re-organizing, it just might be possible for the returning player to pop back into the game and fit right in where he/she lands.

**Dog Lover** · 08-14-2015, 07:19 AM

I am watching Becky in the HOHR with Twinstins at 2:45 BBT and I swear I am hearing Becky pinning her HOH on her team. She just said that "She would own it" (her HOH) even though her people told her this was what they wanted.

How many times did we hear Becky proudly talk about this being a PERSONAL decision and it was for HER game. My goodness. That isn't what I'm hearing now.
I think I need some sleep.

(Boy.....I sure have been picking on Becky a lot lately. I guess I really don't like her game)

**herms is here** · 08-14-2015, 07:37 AM

I fear that the cats (SS alliance) are going to have the mice for lunch. When if Shelli is brought back in they will only be down a person. Hopefully this will not be the case and we will have two more evictions before someone is brought back in. I am still routing for the blind mice minus one.

**nonobadfish** · 08-14-2015, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by KeninVA

....
Vanessa's suspicions about Austin are not paranoia, they are based on an accurate read of Austin's ill intentions towards her game. Austin made the Brass Tacks alliance with TBM and Austwins, and with Jackie's boot, he goes right back to it. His endgame is J/M with Liz, Julia and himself, let J/M cut Julia at the end stage. he does not say that, but it must be his plan. Vanessa is along for the ride, but can be taken out anytime after this week. (As mad as Liz appears to get, I still don't see a scenario where Liz puts Vanessa on the block in a backdoor.).

I have to run now, but I do want to say one thing about this: I think Vanessa made her own bed with Austin and she bears some responsibility with his turning against her. She talked down to him, patronized him, and made him feel as if he had to prove himself to her every single week. Eventually Austin would have had to make a move against Vanessa because he doesn't want her at the end, but he turned faster because she belittled him so much. Several BBUers have commented that Austin was getting really tired of the way Vanessa treats him.

In my mind, the fact that Vanessa doesn't realize how she comes across to the other HGs is part of her downfall. I don't think she does it on purpose...she simply doesn't know how to interact on a purely social level. She doesn't pick up on the intricacies of how a person needs to be handled. It's as if she thinks there is nothing but the game, and personalities/feelings don't have a place when you're in game mode. Yet she immediately brings out the tears when her own feelings are hurt. There's a big disconnect with her, and I'm not sure it's her fault. It may just be the way she's made.

**Myragirl** · 08-14-2015, 07:43 AM

Why is Austin in the HoH, when Liz has a twin? I can't believe Liz didn't tell him that Julia should be in the HoH. Julia was complaining to Vanessa yesterday about how it seems like Liz is siding with Austin over her. I can't believe she would pick Austin over Julia. I hope she picks him as a HN. Austin is the worst ally ever. He's only true ally is Liz, and that's because he is trying to get in her pants. Buddy, you did actively throw Julia under the bus, and Steve too. Now you're turning against Vanessa who has been your ally since day 1 for Meg and James who will cut you in a heart beat.

Vanessa is again being blamed for Steve's nomination. Most of these HGs forget that they treated Steve poorly for weeks, spoke about him badly and loudly, and if not because of Jason's eviction jumpstarting their awareness of BB being a conpetition, not a summer camp, and Vanessa steathly protecting Steve, he would be home now. Steve was public enemy number 2, second only to Audrey until Clay, Shelli, and Vanessa became bigger fish to fry. Do you think he doesn't know he's just a number for you? I'm so sick of everyone being unable to take responsibility for their actions in the game.

I think Julia is starting to distrust Vanessa after the Becky info. I really hope Julia talks to Vanessa about Becky's info. Julia was privy to some of the details before the switch with Liz. This is where I hate that they didn't completely brief Liz. Austin has spinned it to look like Jason was lying which he wasn't, and now that Vanessa turned on him. How is him trying to pin the Judas vote on Steve to make him Jackie's target, and worse than Vanessa trying to cut him.

I hope Johnny Mac wins veto. What will liztin do? Who will be the renom?

**TTOTambz2** · 08-14-2015, 07:50 AM

Good Morning Geo, Ken, NoNo and all who follow,

Interesting evening with the expected eviction of Shelli and the unexpected eviction of Jackie. Just as I started to recover thinking NoNo and I were about to power through the Vaustwins the mean twin Liz won the second night's HOH. (boo).

Not sure if Steve is playing us all like Edward Norton in Primal Fear or if he's really that awkward. I won't give him full credit b/c the first thing JMac said to Becky was "we can't take him (Steve) deep in the game" so he was ticked at what Steve did.

Fully recovered from last week Vanessa was back in full swing: making sure to get a deal cut with the devastated & shocked Meg who knew she was safe, but felt inclined to agree (and I'm reading this morning she ALSO made James give her a deal to keep Meg... REALLY Vanessa?), spoke to Johnny Mac about forming a F3 with Steve, talked to the Austwins about making two separate F6 deals: one with Meg/James &; one with Steve/JMac and pushed her get Becky out agenda.

Meanwhile Austin is not happy with Vanessa pushing her own agenda and dictating who should go up, what deals to make even what to say to each of the nominees or trying to get Liz to have the meetings w/o Austin. Ken is right..........and I did say this yesterday we are headed for a full on power struggle. Initially it looked like Austin had Liz & Vanessa had Julia, but the fact Vanessa has made so many deals is hurting her. Furthermore, Vanessa is now in a vulnerable position b/c she is constantly working within the framework of partnerships to elicit distrust. So much so that people aren't trusting her at all anymore. Last night she told JMac not to worry that she would eat her shoe if he left and that's not a smart thing to be saying to someone when the flippiest, floppiest twin is HOH & at the moment wants him to be the one who leaves. After all he is a jury vote.

After Vaustwins met they agreed to nominate JMac & Becky as the target and Vanessa stated they'd put up James as re-nom. But when it was just the trio Austin made some solid points regarding keeping Becky around to target Vanessa who offers a shield for them, to not put up Meg in an effort to keep their F5 solid (he trusts Meg/James) and noted that JMac is the real threat given his comp performances & how often the DR calls him.

During the Meg/James convo it's implied Vanessa was the one who buried Jackie with lies to Steve and then during the Becky convo she dumps pretty much everything blaming Vanessa for outing the meeting, explaining the entire back door Austin week letting them know Vanessa was the one behind it all. The fact Vanessa called Austin to the mat for lying to her & then lied to him about not knowing James was suppose to throw it was not a good move.

Vanessa's plan has clearly always been to get to the late stages w/o Austin (IMHO) but with both twins as well as another female who currently looks like it would be Meg. I think she thought they'd bring along Steve as well. To wit, I'm SHOCKED no one is discussing how Steve is winning BIG comps during stress & danger yet he flits about the house asking for hugs and to see his Mommy. Where I found Ian endearing I actually find Steve conniving.

He did what was best for his game w/o any thought to what it would do to his #1 ally JMac who could leave this week.

So, the twins have flip-flopped already several times if it's JMac or Becky who needs to go & I imagine will continue to all week. I'm praying for a James POV otherwise I expect somehow it will end up being him on the block and leaving by weeks end. BOO

Unfortunately the TrainMac2Mice was too raw/young to really elicit sharing much info between each other but I do wish they would. Prior to POV ceremony I really hope they (ideally the more naive or trustworthy ones Meg or JMac) would tell Austin/Liz that Vanessa has been telling people Liz doesn't even like him, is using him & that Julia hates him & pointed to Liz's super hero poster as proof. Since there are some partial truths in that they can say Shelli shared that info and JMac can say he overheard Shelli/Vanessa talking about it. if he feels his ass is on the line. It "might" get Vanessa put on the block & it's the kind of misdirection this specific season they seem to eat up! Vanessa has done so much pot stirring at this point that if they started calling her out for all the things she's shared or planted she'd have a hard time dodging that bullet successfully (even if she was telling the truth!)

I'm happy for those whose players survived and are positioned well today and I'd even accepted Jackie leaving thinking the TrainMac2Mice would be a solid alliance but feel a bit defeated today.

Have a great day all & if TPTB are listening is there anyway you can send some special power to James/JMac that would enable them to switch the noms? I'd love to see the Vaustwins feel the scary side of the block having to sit there on eviction night. Up until tonight none of them had right?

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