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**sdkgeo** · 08-30-2015, 06:46 AM

Morning all. What's the over/under on the how many times the renom will change in the next 24+ hours?

**KeninVA** · 08-30-2015, 06:49 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

James pulls out a big save, making the Mousekateers of BBU jump for joy. Vanessa stresses over the renom, and the loss of leverage with James that actually campaigning to save him would have represented, and then drinks wine, calms down, and starts playing the game again.

After the two aces she got dealt on Thursday night, she got the worst possible card, at the river (a texas Hold Em term for the last card turned over in a round), when James won PoV, giving himself safety. This lowers the leverage she might have gained, by helping to keep him, over Meg. After initial discussion with the Austwins and Steve/Jmac, she is feeling stuck, since her ideal renom, Julia, is reluctant to go up. What I find fascinating is that Julia is not actually nervous about the vote; it is a fear of public speaking, and having to make an eviction plea on Thursday night driving most of her fear.

Vanessa is playing the Jmac distrust to the hilt. I believe it is only 20 percent real distrust, since she can understand Jmac’s incentives, and knows he has no reason to move against her this week, and Meg being removed by someone else’s hand, gives him leverage with James. All the discussion with Austin about putting Jmac up, and reasons to do it, is 80 percent show. She is following a well understood debate strategy, which is to articulate all of the reasons your opponents’ proposition makes sense, in order to then take them apart, one by one, demonstrating that you understand the opposing point of view, but that your position is superior. For the bibliophiles, I recommend reading John Stuart Mill’s political essays, as a prime example of this technique in argument.

Her process is to also weigh every angle, and calculate all the odds, and despite some of the turbulence in her relationship with Austin, he is still her best sounding board, and gamer. These discussions are also important, since as the end game nears, the summer is also coming to an end, and she is gently prodding Austin to come back to reality, and remember that he gave up a lot to enter the house, and to throw away the chance at half a million dollars, on a romantic notion, in the confines of the BB house, is the height of insanity. She is making inroads with him, and they leave the conversation, making a plan to approach James together, with a deal that does not involve the twins.

In the event, by evening’s end (or night’s end for those of us who don’t live in “True Blood’s” world) Julia has agreed to go on the block, as the best move for scamper squad, Vanessa has gotten her ideal renom to agree to go up gracefully, and Meg’s fate will be sealed, and Vanessa’s original target (and Jmac’s) going into the week, will exit the house on Thursday. James will be checked, in that he will have a multiplicity of targets, as the vote out will be 4-1, and he can either make a kamikaze run at Vanessa, if he is the DE HoH, or he can listen to Jmac, and repoint himself at Austin.

In the discussion with James, Vanessa told him straight up, she expects to go up, and pointed him gently at Steve. In the rush of DE, it is very possible, should he be the HoH (a low probability event), he shoots at Vanessa with Steve as the pawn, and he will miss. I believe Jmac would actually preserve Vanessa over Steve, and I am sure the Austwins would.

The things to watch today, will be the discussion between Julia and Vanessa, continued discussions between James/Meg and James/Jmac, and Austin working James, and Austin and Vanessa approaching James for a deal.

ETA: A small addendum, Steve was instrumental in getting Julia to see reason, calm her fears, and get her to agree to go up, during a discussion between the Twins, and himself, in the bathroom area last night.

Going forward, given James threats and posturing earlier, I expect that for anyone but Jmac as DE HoH, James will be the target, giving Steve and Vanessa what they really want, which is Jmac, themselves, and the Austwins at F6, evening up the fight (with a slight edge to Vanessa/Steve/Jmac).

**Luanne** · 08-30-2015, 07:15 AM

Good morning all- Was not able to watch the feeds any yesterday so am way behind. Congratulations James' fans. I know how happy you are. You are as happy as I was last week.

I have to share a little of my day with all of you. I have a first cousin visiting from California this week. I had the family over yesterday, a total of 23 people. I would run to my bedroom and check to see if the POV was over. I was beginning to think it would not end, but finally it did. I knew it would be impolite to get on the computer to get my addiction and I was having a hard time. I noticed that my daughter-in-law was going out to her car a lot and finally asked her if she was ok. She is a James fan and she was just checking on the POV. I laughed because I did not know she was as addicted as I am. Later that night, my niece asked me if I knew who was nominated this week and of course I did. I told her the POV was over. She asked who won and after making sure she really wanted to know, I shared the information. She jumped up and down, she is a James fan,

I know this is not about the live feeds but knew you all would understand what a stressful day I had yesterday.

**aprilshowers** · 08-30-2015, 08:06 AM

Vanessa will probably still win this thing and James will probably follow Meg next week but it was still very fun to watch Vanessa's melt down after she has talked so much about other people being emotional and actually using it against Meg last week when she broke down after the Veto.

They still do not realize that they are walking into a DE this week. If Vanessa gets through the double then I think she goes all the way. I am beginning to think Austin is playing the same game Vanessa is just not being as manic about it. He has himself setup with Vanessa and is still keeping James in his pocket in case James ends up in power. Vanessa let him know yesterday that she still does not trust him. When Steve came up as a possible replacement re-nom she questioned if she could really trust them not to flip and vote Steve out. Austin was also pushing gently for JMac to go up and out (because he knows that is best for his game) and Vanessa continued to push back. By Vanessa putting up Julia (even though she agreed) must throw up some red flags that Vanessa may be working with JMac and Steve.

James stays this week. He probably doesn't win but as long as you are in the house there is a chance you move forward. There is no chance from Jury.

And I still do not understand why oh why these HG have let the triplets get this far.

**Myragirl** · 08-30-2015, 08:08 AM

Hi everyone. I'm glad James is safe. I think, Vanessa was hoping to win POV to save James and prove her loyalty to him by either pulling him down or campaigning to save him. James winning has taken that bargaining chip from her, but the end result is still the same, he is safe. She isn't very sure she is safe with him going forward, which she would have been if she had saved him.
I hate to say this but James' game is better without Meg in it. He will have more clarity. Without Meg, He gets to keep his social aspect without losing the game aspect.

I want to see James turned to targeting the Austwins that way we can have the hope that one of those three are going to jury during the DE barring a HoH win by them.

I am really liking the reconfiguration of the house. Steve, JMac, and Vanessa are actively set to evict one of the Austwins come DE, I think Vanessa wants Liz out first, which is the most ideal. They just need James to see the board the same way. Going forward, the only goat left would be Julia. Just the hope of being rid of one of the trios, is making me happy and hopeful for a good wrap up to a very fun season of BB. I hope Steve and Vanessa can feed Liz and Austin wrong info for the DE. I don't want either of those two winning that crucial HoH, and murking up the plans. It would be a huge blindside, but it will be over in minutes with us free of one of them. How glorious would it be?

**Pukahs** · 08-30-2015, 08:16 AM

After the Power of Veto competition yesterday the lyrics to the song I referred to yesterday is even more pertinent -

For What It's Worth There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware
I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind
It's time we stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
What a field-day for the heat
A thousand people in the street
Singing songs and carrying signs
Mostly say, hooray for our side
It's s time we stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away
We better stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, now, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down

Sounds like the Big Brother house to me. Especially now

**TTOTambz2** · 08-30-2015, 09:07 AM

Good Morning, Geo, Ken, Luanne, All who follow AND HAPPY Mouseketeers!

Obviously, I'm thrilled James won and though I love Meg I actually believe his options become greater in the house without her. Great post by Ken this morning, but as typical of this season I actually disagree on a couple of things mostly Vanessa related & James being a target for most in DE.

Here's how I see the house's affinity list, DE target & where James falls within their circle after Thurs:

JMac:
He already wants to pull James in with Steve/Vanessa. Though I'm not someone who has ever read JM well I do believe he will work with V/S F3, however I think he would cut Vanessa possibly prior to James sensing the Vanessa/Steve deal. With Meg gone I actually expect these 2 to get much closer and maybe NoNo & I could end up with a dream F2!

Finally got some clarification on the what JM heard Thursday outside: he says the reason he knew to go along with V/S over Trits was because he heard audience commentary during the GB Msgs. Now that makes sense since we know how popular the triplets are. They didn't show Goblin GB's so he didn't get any feed back on them. His target going into Thurs is Liztin!

Steve:
As Ken highlighted Steve may have done the best work in the house tonight working all sides & AGAIN I'll point out his social nervousness is completely gone I think he is a shy kid, but he really played up his awkwardness until he won the first DE HOH & he tends to be one of the better pressure players. He also likes the idea of pulling in James (and wanted Meg out if noms had remained J/M). Though he wouldn't comment to JM about going straight at Liztin he has said exactly that to the live feeders.

Steve is the only hamster to correctly predict the upcoming DE. If they get any indication via the early backyard lock down watch for him/JMac to drill dates as the HOH comp will likely be Before/After so they'll be gunning for it. The DE will only add credence to targeting Liztin to break up the triplets.

Twins:
A DE HOH Twits win is the most dangerous for James. My gut tells me it will be a Rock Star HOH win with Liz targeted. Austin will be the consolation if Liz gets off the block. Once that occurs (oh pretty please) Austin/Julia's target will be squarely on revenging that hit. AND in the event Liz wins I think Austin will get in her ear to separate JM & Steve as the last couple (in his eyes) remaining in the house. But James would be the renom & that would likely end his game. So, Mouseketeers we need anything BUT a Twit DE HOH.

Austin:
I didn't see the convo Van/Austin had re making a F3 with James so I'd love to know more, but it stands to reason Austin won't target James before JMac or Steve (& possibly even Vanessa though she's pulled him back in quite well).

Vanessa:
I had always thought Vanessa wanted 2 females at the end but she'll only have Julia as an option as it's likely Liz will be the first target (if they're smart). It's hard to tell who Vanessa's true F2 is:
*Said she wanted an all girl final
* First F2 was made with Austin
* Also has F2's with Steve/Julia/JMac
* Will likely try to make a F2 with James

Not easy to know who Vanessa ideally wants other than Julia. Maybe she'll push for a James, Julia F3 as she could win either comp & might think she'd have the best chance against those 2 players. She has so many deals it's hard to say, but I do think she will be open to whoever is adamant about forging that F2 deal with her. To that end, it would behoove James to cement a F2 with her especially since the Goblins believe it is a bitter jury. For Vanessa it would help her as she'd have all 3 of the Austwins votes already in jury & might believe she'd also have Shelli's vote over James.

Bottom line, with Meg leaving, James not known for his date knowledge & those types of games on the horizon coupled with the type of undying loyalty he'll give his #1 ally he becomes a very intriguing player for others to pull in.

The other factor is jury management which is why Van/Austin likely see the merits of bringing in James who is alone & who'll they'll have 3 votes against in jury if they end up in F2 with him. Plus they'd have a great shot at taking the final HOH parts 1 & 2 (though he'd give the endurance a go he'd likely not do well in the 2nd part).

I"ll hope for a Rock Star DE HOH (but sure would enjoy seeing Steve be the one to put up Liztin) and the fire works that would incur afterward. James & Vanessa would actually benefit the most from this happening on Thursday as they could fade into the middle & watch the 2 boys go after Austin & Julia. If one of Liztin leaves Thursday I expect Vanessa will throw the 2nd HOH unless she's worried about James.

**herms is here** · 08-30-2015, 09:40 AM

Is there not a chance that Julia goes over Meg? Like I mentioned late last night, I don't want the last remaining females to be the twins and Vanessa. At least if it is and if everything goes as plan, it won't be for that long considering that it is a DE.

**farmergurl** · 08-30-2015, 10:17 AM

Out of the lurker shadows again...Any chance Austin throws a hinky vote, blames Steve, to get Julia out and eliminate trust between Steve and Vanessa?

**belle1** · 08-30-2015, 10:19 AM

As much as I want Meg to be saved, it is best for James if she goes to jury Thursday night. He knows this and conceded as much to Vanessa last night. Now the interesting piece for me is who does James align with, Austin or JMac. He has history with Austin but knows that the Austwins betrayed him and Meg and also knows Austin will protect the twins over him. As for JMac, he told Meg that he wished they had pulled him in earlier in the game but now it is to late because he is damaged goods because he is a big target.

I want him to choose JMac because they are my favorites and I don't like the Austwins. Both men have similar traits and both see themselves as lone wolves in the game. These two can be the force that upsets Vanessa's apple cart .

**BettyBoo** · 08-30-2015, 11:23 AM

Things I think about Vanessa:
1. She was all in for an all-girl final, but she wants Meg out, putting girls in the minority.
2. She wanted the support of LGBT house members, but tossed one out and helped evict another.
3. Even if she wins I think sadly she hasn't enjoyed the experience since was just a job to her.

I kinda feel sorry for her since nothing seems to bring her joy. She accomplishes goals, by racing thru college and becoming a winning card shark, but where's the happiness in anything she does. No wonder she looks miserable all the time. Meg for all her failures, at least has the capacity to have fun and enjoy the experience.

Maybe at some point, Vanessa will stop and smell the roses. Or, better yet, take that ugly A$$ green cap off and let her brain cool.

**BBhead** · 08-30-2015, 11:59 AM

Vanessa is gathering an army of F2 minions (in her mind): Austin, Steve, JMac, Julia, and soon to be James. Once Meg is out, I expect her to start pointing people to Liz as the next target. I believe her real F2 is Julia.

**SmilemakerRDH** · 08-30-2015, 12:00 PM

Once Julia is on the block, that gives 3 days for Vanessa paranoia to kick in. And we all know with her anything is possible! If the right person says the right thing at the right time...she could switch her target to Julia and team up with James and Meg and then they would be 5 on 2 going into the double. That's pretty good odds. (Well 4 on 2 since she can't play)

**sdkgeo** · 08-30-2015, 12:03 PM

Very interesting reading this morning. It occurred to me while reading, that with a Meg exit, there will be four singles, Vanessa, Steve, JMac, and James against the twin/showmance triplet alliance. I know that there are looser ties with the others, Vanessa/Steve, Steve/ JMac, JMac/James even, but essentially the four are singles and each has their own strengths that complement each other so that one of the four should win any HoH/POV over Austwins (except the ropes comp). From that perspective it makes sense to get rid of Meg. I'm not sure the others see it, but if Vanessa can smooth things over with James, she has built her army to go against Austin and the twins. At the very least she's in the middle of a 3 vs. 3. At this point, I don't know who her preferred F2 is, but she may wait to see how things play out a little more.

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