Live Feed Discussion-September 5

[sdkgeo]

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Head of Household Winner
The Nominations
Battle of the Block Winners
Power of Veto

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[sdkgeo]

Morning all. Veto comp today. Will we get more meltdowns if Julia doesn't win.

I had a thought. If Austin wins the veto, will the twins try to convince him not to use it so that they don't go on the block together. I'm pretty sure he would use it though and then try to get Julia out.

[KeninVA]

Morning geo, and all who follow,

Austin and Liz finally take the block, Steve and Jmac make a strategic error, in my view, and Vanessa faces danger again.

The next round of play, will be set up by the PoV today. In straight odds, Steve, Vanessa and Jmac face a 17 percent chance of their nightmare coming true. The worst outcome today for them is Julia winning HoH, and so they should cooperate in making sure Julia goes out, if they can. Any other outcome is fine.
If Julia wins PoV, Steve has a choice to make, and if Vanessa goes up, she goes out. If Jmac goes up, he goes out. So, the real action will be Steve being all in on keeping Vanessa, and ending up with Scamper Squad at F5, or ending Vanessa’s game, and moving forward with John.

If I am Steve, in this worst case scenario, I am weighing one thing. Ability to win comps, since in the next round, if all three Austwins are still in the game, winning the F5 HoH is everything. Neither Vanessa nor John can turn on him at F5, or Final 4, since those three have to be broken up, and going to F3 with two of them, makes zero game sense. That has to be weighed against who can you beat, in the F2, but until you get there, competition ability should be the only criteria. Only Steve can make that calculation. Vanessa has a better comp record, but Steve may believe in the comps coming up, Jmac with his physical ability, is the better match for his skills.

John and Steve talk, and decide that their best boot is Austin. I am not sure that is actually the case, since Austin is less emotional, is not susceptible to Vanessa’s manipulation, and can easily end up in a scenario, that he boots Vanessa over them. For the twins, if they remain in place, Liz actually has a better comp record, they should be motivated to preserve Vanessa over either Steve or John, since a female winner has never won against a man, and have been playing with Vanessa longer. Added to that, if Liz and Julia remain in the game, the Rockstars can’t force Vanessa out, since that would leave them with a definite 2 v. 2 scenario, vs the hope Vanessa does not jump to the girls, against the two of them.

There will be some game talk today, but, until the PoV winner is determined, no serious go forward plan can be formulated for any player.

[Ladychef]

KeninVA, who should Steve have put up then? I just didn't see him putting up V or JM. If Liz wins will he put up Julia? I thought I read somewhere he wanted to keep her

[KeninVA]

Ladychef, he made the best nomination. Julia is the weakest player of the three, and the goal is to make sure SHE doesn't win. Neither Austin or Liz are going to hold back, unless it is an elimination type PoV, and since the DE was an elimination type comp, this next one is not as likely to lend itself to the being able to confidently throw the comp to just Julia, if conditions permit.

VJS have better than a 16 percent chance, in actuality, based on Julia's terrible comp record, so they have the best chance of an outcome they want, right now. It just depends on what the comp is, and how they perform. There is nothing they can do except win at this point. But they have stacked the deck in their favor.

[Ladychef]

oops, I also meant to write Good Morning Coffee hasn't kicked in yet!

[nonobadfish]

Morning geo, Ken, Ladychef, and everyone! On my way to my Saturday breakfast group, but wanted to stop in to emphasize something that Ken just said. I didn't realize it until Julia and Liz said it yesterday, but if Julia wins PoV and takes Liz off, Julia and Liz control the vote. They get to decide who goes home. THAT IS HUGE.

I was so focused on laughing at the idea that Vanessa thinks she could talk Julia into not using it that I totally skipped over the fact that if Julia wins and pulls off Liz, then the Renom goes home. Is Vanessa not worried about that? Does she think she's not going to be the Renom?

Liz and Julia won't send Austin home no matter whom he's sitting next to, I don't think. (Let me clarify...that's my opinion, and I'm often wrong). At one time they were very closely tied to Vanessa, but that's dropped off quite a bit and they have even said recently (privately to each other) that they don't want to be sitting with Vanessa at the end. Their two votes would save Austin if it's Austin/Vanessa on the block. And for sure they'd save Austin if it's Austin/JMac.

My gut tells me that IF Julia wins PoV and takes Liz off, Steve renoms Vanessa and she goes home. He will have to decide whether he loses JMac or he loses Vanessa, and I simply don't believe he wants to be sitting next to Vanessa in the end. He's given every indication that he thinks he can beat JMac, but not Vanessa.

THIS IS A BIG POV DAY. Liz and Julia realize their power and are already talking about Liz throwing the PoV to Julia. I wonder if Austin will realize the benefit in that and will throw PoV to Julia as well?

[KeninVA]

As I said above though, who he is sitting next to, should not be a factor at all. He has to decide, who is going to win, and in that scenario, Vanessa might be able to convince him, she is the better horse to ride. He will be three on two then, without the ability to play for HoH. If the worst happens, he has two considerations:

Who will win the F5 HoH, which is the best case for him, getting himself halfway through the gate, and setting up a replay week, Liz/Austin on the block, Julia in the wings. The other scenario he has to consider is, an Austwin wins HoH, and then he has to think of who he can beat in the PoV. If Ball Pit is not today, then it is probably F5 PoV, which he would then have think, am I more likely to beat Jmac in ball pit, or Vanessa. Steve has to know, in the next round, after this HoH, he is likely to be the boot over Jmac.

[Myragirl]

Nono, this was what prompted the conversation Vanessa was having with the twins yesterday after nominations about them remaining threats as long as Austin was in the game, and her being better for their games. She was anticipating this scenario, and prepping the girls to turn on Austin.

[nonobadfish]

Home from breakfast group (none of whom watch BB. We had to talk politics instead ). I read what you said, Ken....I just don't think Steve thinks the way you do....at least from how I've seen him act/speak/think.

Myragirl, I saw that conversation with Vanessa and the twins and they were acting all in. But it was after that conversation that both twins decided that they didn't want to be with Vanessa at the end of the game. I would honestly be shocked if they voted Austin out if he was up against Vanessa. They've discussed that a trio making it to the end is quite an accomplishment. I think they're all in on Austwins (at least at the moment).

Most likely this conversation is for naught, though...surely Julia doesn't win two PoVs in a row.

[belle1]

We have been anticipating this day when the Austwins, Vanessa, and Steve battle it out. Should at least cause some MoDramaMama fun. Part of me wants Julia to win POV just to watch the paranoia of Vanessa go into overdrive. But then that probably means another week or more of the Austwins. Don't know if it is worth the drama.

I do know that I want JMac to take cover until the fur settles. Go JMac!

[KeninVA]

Me too. I am hopeful Vanessa wins the PoV, because we will see some strategy around using it or not. I am pretty sure, John keeps noms the same. Vanessa is more likely to use it, to pull Liz down, if as I suspect, she is thinking of wanting a strong pair or a weak pair on the other side going into the next round of play. But, if you really like Jmac, him winning the PoV again is good for his record.

I can't think of when the F6 PoV was going to have such a big impact going into the short game.

[cutencuddly]

It is soooooo worth the drama! Go Julia! Austin, throw it to Julia! You need to get your future sister-in-law on your good side.

[sofieckcs]

If Julia wins the POV today, it's the Austwins show to the end. The only question left would be which one of the three wins the $500. They will totally control the game.

I'm not sure Vanessa realizes how much danger she's in. I think she knows the consequences of Julia winning but believes she can get Steve to put JMac up as a replacement instead of her. Steve wanted to put the twins on the block and Vanessa explained to him that he had to leave Julia off because she is the one least likely of the three to win POV. As long as Austin or Liz win POV, he is still OK. As Steve mumbled to himself yesterday, 'Anyone but Julia'.

[KeninVA]

She told Austin yesterday, if Julia wins, my game is done. She knows exactly how much danger she is in. But, I also expect her to fight hard to not go up, and then fight hard, if she ends up on the block. But, that won't likely change the fact that she will most likely go home, though there are reason for Julia to want to keep Vanessa over Austin, since, as far as she knows, Vanessa would pull into the next gate, if she can, where as Austin would always choose Liz. The difficulty for Vanessa, is that Julia, correctly I think, beleives that Austin/Liz together, have a better shot of Liz getting into a final 2 chair, over Vanessa/Julia.

[KeninVA]

This season has delivered in spades, yet again. MoDramaMama feed frenzy yesterday, massive helpings at the Schadenfreude Buffett over the girls melting down, pulling themselves together, and melting down again, all the while the anti-twin contingent of the feed watching public able to slake their thirst on the tears of the entitled righteous.

I will say, except for Meg, none of the ADC, when the block came, have acted so emotionally and expressed such sentiments of entitlement. Shelli, Clay, Vanessa, and now the twins have all gone there. Only Austin and Steve, to their credits, have held it together. I suspect it is partly a girl thing. We don't know what Jackie would have been like, since she was only up for 5 minutes, before her exit, but Becky took her nomination and eviction pretty well.

[Myragirl]

You're absolutely right that Becky is the only one who took the nominations well. I believe the thought that she had the votes to stay over JMac and could come back played a big part in that, but I will still give her credit.
Also, I think Vanessa only had her meltdown because of the blindside and Becky's response post nomination. I am a Vanessa fan so I tend to see things through rose-colored glasses.

[farmergurl]

KeninVA, the anti-twin contingent line has brought me to tears. Who knew Ken can be so funny. I always enjoy your take on the game.

[Luanne]

Good morning all. I do not have a lot to add. Just go Vanessa, win Pov. If she can not, I hope Johnny or Steve wins.

[KeninVA]

For us, as Vanessa fans, her winning PoV, gives her a lot of control, since she can keep Austin and Liz together, Keep Austin and Julia together, or keep Liz and Julia together. Jmac has the same control, but I think can't take quite as much advantage of it, given he has no history with them. They are not going to "owe him" anything, no matter what happens, so I don't think it helps him as much.

[sofieckcs]

Vanessa already has her out. She told the Austwins that Steve made her and JMac promise to vote the way he wanted so she won't be held responsible for whatever decision/vote she makes.

[Myragirl]

I don't want Vanessa to win. I think it is in her best interest that the noms stay the same and they evict one of Liztin. A JMac (or Steve) win gives her that, and she can convince Steve and JMac to vote whichever way. Today, I have come to the conclusion that keeping Liz is better for her. The twins, especially Liz will remain a target during the next eviction if JMac pulls a W. JMac and Steve will be nominees, with Steve as the target if the twins win. She prevents any ''bro-ing''. Win win win. I am biased though because Austin is my least favorite HG, and also the most likely to stab her in the back early in the game.

[Myragirl]

As much as I want drama, I do not want the Austwins making it intact to the end so here's hoping JMac pulls a win here. A part of me also wants Austin gone, so I'm hoping JMac and Steve spill to the twins that Austin has done them dirty, and he is the target. I want to see Julia go off on him.

[Ladychef]

I would also LOVE to see Julia go off on him! It would be in Vanessa's interest to win so that she can't be put up as a replacement should one of the Austwins win POV.

[sofieckcs]

IF Julia loses the POV, the next question impacting the game is who should leave? Liz or Austin? Thoughts.

[Myragirl]

Pukahs, it is 100% in the boys interest to keep the noms the same if either of them win, especially if Julia doesn't. It means she is the weakest competitor amongst the 3, hence the least threatening.

[nonobadfish]

I think that Austin needs to leave even though I want one of the twins to leave. That takes out a physical comp threat and puts JMac in the strong guy position. Steve and JMac need Austin gone for that reason alone. They are teamed with Vanessa at the moment, and they believe that Vanessa/Steve have the mental comps covered, so they need JMac to cover the physical. I know Liz can win some comps, but she can't do endurance.

[sofieckcs]

Good point, Nono, and I think that's the point JMac made to Steve why Austin should go instead of Liz.

[Ramona7581]

Good morning BBU! 🌞
And Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Oh boy, what if Julia wins the POV today???
Isn't this the exact type of scenario that Steve has been sick over and that all of us have been ranting about with Austwins? It's Steve's good fortune that he won HOH this week, otherwise he might be a victim!

Far be it from me to enjoy the possible misfortune of our dear Vanessa! 😜😝😛

Nope, not gonna do it! Nope, not me! No throwing of salt around here!😉

Again, I believe that sometimes, a little bit of luck goes a lot further than great strategy.

Good luck Julia! (That's for James! Not me!) Beautiful Dreamer here!

What a fun Saturday!😊


PS: I'm still digging 'Grumpy Old Man' salt out of my DE BB wounds! ❤️💋

[cutencuddly]

C'mon Julia!

Austin, you know you can't turn on your lady love now .... it's best for all of you if you throw the comp to Julia! Just think what Thanksgiving dinners will be like if you're the reason Liz goes to jury and Vanessa wins the game.

[nonobadfish]

.....I am hopeful Vanessa wins the PoV, because we will see some strategy around using it or not. I am pretty sure, John keeps noms the same. Vanessa is more likely to use it, to pull Liz down, if as I suspect, she is thinking of wanting a strong pair or a weak pair on the other side going into the next round of play. But, if you really like Jmac, him winning the PoV again is good for his record.

I can't think of when the F6 PoV was going to have such a big impact going into the short game.

I've been meaning to ask you, Ken, why would Vanessa pull Liz off? I've seen you say that before, but I don't understand why you think that? If she pulls her down, Julia goes up and will be FURIOUS at Vanessa for putting her in danger. I don't even think Liz would want Vanessa to use the PoV since it means Julia is in danger. (I would sacrifice myself for my siblings, and I think Liz seems the same way....she's very protective of Julia even though she picks on her). Austin most likely is going home either way, so why would Vanessa risk the upset using the PoV would cause with the twins?

Vanessa and Julia control the votes and can keep Liz over Austin. I just can't see the need for Vanessa to pull Liz down so that Julia goes up? It seems like that would be a major social mistake on her part.

[KeninVA]

It might be, and if she is sure of her go forward plan, then keeping noms the same is her best bet. But, pulling Liz down gives her the chance to make a F2 with her, if Julia is out. There is some risk, since she needs John to trust her, since she has to avoid going up on the block in initial noms next cycle, if John wins the HoH, finally, for F5. Her plan, if I am right, is get Steve out next week, with John as HoH.

[herms is here]

Even though Vanessa has had a say in all of the evictions a Julia POV win would be poetic justice, maybe. Liz would definitely be saved, but who would the twins evict, Austin or van. Would Steve do the scumbag move and put up John. Then he would have wasted his HOH, and his"big move" would not have happened.

It will also be poetic justice for keeping Julia over Meg.

I know I don't want the Austwin's going to the end, but in this case I am to routing for a Julia win. Come on Julia pull out another win, so Steve and John will be thinking. Would of, could of should of.

[KeninVA]

Steve operates with a lot of fear. I am still not convinced Jmac is 100 percent on board with Steve, so I don't know if I would consider it scumbag. He has to decide, who will win next HoH, and who can beat in the F5 PoV. Some of that is unknowable, but wanting Jmac in F2 with him, should not be any part of the decision. IMO. I can see either choice he would make, as valid for his game, with different competition factors coming into play. For sure, if Jmac got voted out, Vanessa would have to keep him into the F3, just like John would. And that factor, is equal.