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**KeninVA** · 09-06-2015, 07:28 AM

Morning geo, and all who follow,

Vanessa’s second worst outcome comes to pass, and Austin saves himself, forcing her to reevaluate her go forward strategy. The twins melt down, Austin is the most insensitive man on the planet, and Jmac steps back into the shadows.

Austin won the power of Veto, in some type of bowling comp, I think. Vanessa caused some drama, by telling Julia, when asked, who should she pick. Vanessa told her to pick Austin. I suspect she was telling her that to A. Potentially prove that Austin would not throw the veto to her, driving a wedge between Austin and the twins, or B. that she had seen Austin in a previous round, and was confident Austin would beat Julia, saving Vanessa from her worst nightmare. It might have been a combination of both. And in fact, it accomplished both those things.

Austin then spent the next three hours being an insensitive ass “for the benefit of the live feeders” by wearing the veto medallion, while Liz and Julia melted down. At one point, as he was trying to comfort Liz, the veto medallion was literally hanging in her face. I think he loses points for style in the boyfriend department.

He also went into game mode, and got to Jmac/Steve to propose a final 4 of Liz/Austin with Rockstars. Jmac actually seemed receptive to it with Steve, but since he and Vanessa never talk, and Jmac has no confidant anyway, I don’t take anything he says to anyone as proof of his thinking. He wants to win, but we don’t know what factors he is actually weighing. It would seem that taking Steve to the end does not make sense, but I don’t know how he feels about his chances with Jury against Steve, and may feel that his little boy act has alienated enough of them, that he carries the day. But for Jmac, dumping Vanessa and riding with Liz/Austin, puts him with a F4 that at least one of the those three won’t take him (Liz), and makes his competition road harder, having lost multiple times to both of them.

Vanessa and the twins made up, Austin and Vanessa made up, and the house calmed down after a few hours. Julia became more rational then Liz, and realized this is the end of their joint game. In their initial discussions, with Vanessa and themselves, they arrived at the conclusion that they want Liz evicted, as Julia is more likely to make to the end, being dragged as a goat to F2, losing but getting the 50K. I don't expect this decision to stick.

Steve has kept his head, despite all the heady talk of teaming up with Liz/Austin, and his emotional detachment allows him to make the most important declarative statement of the day “Julia is going up”. For him, Jmac, and Vanessa, there is no question that one of the three has to go home. He also questioned Jmac, for the 5^th or 6^th time about his throwing comps, since Jmac lost to Austin in the final round. That has to be cause for concern on his part.

The vote out, is likely to be controlled by Vanessa and Austin. Vanessa has influence over Austin, now that she can’t get Austin out, her interest in keeping him in the next round aligns with his interest in staying, and so she is going to try to influence him, to make the best boot for her game, in the guise of them working together to the end. Austin is happy to play along, since I think his plan is to get Vanessa out in the next round, if he can't get Steve out, his best F5 boot.

Jmac has faded back into the background, with most of the angry twin talk pointed at Steve and Austin. From my perspective, Jmac could be doing cartwheels, and spitting in their food, in front of them, and he is the safest in the house. Steve, Vanessa and Austin have no incentive to boot a prior evictee, at least until F4, unless they weigh the need to get a comp threat out, to preserve the option for a veto, for themselves. Other than that, Austin, Steve, and Vanessa objectively have the best chance to win against him, other than Julia.

There is not going to be much game today, as the only rational decision has already been made. I expect all the players (Austin, Vanessa, Jmac, Steve) to have some limited talks, avoiding committing to anything, until after PoV ceremony. Of course, Vanessa (my favorite) will be the one player unable to follow my channeled advice.

Note for @Nonobadfish: Saw your top three season picks were still in the game (Jmac, Steve, Vanessa). Just have to match you with 3 of my five “players” from my first post of the season are still in as well (Austin, Vanessa, Jmac, though he did hit a little rough patch there, having to talk to Julie and all). For me, our interests are aligned, for the first time since S14, since I think Jmac has his 2^nd best chance to win against Vanessa. The two of them will be fighting over Shelli’s vote in a final 3, I think. I know you want Steve in the hunt, but he will beat Jmac handily, just saying.

**sdkgeo** · 09-06-2015, 07:28 AM

Good morning all.

So Austin won the Veto and it looks like the twins will go on the block together. Gotta love the drama and meltdowns. Will Liz continue her Audreyesque meltdown or will she pull herself together and try to campaign or at least be pleasant. Will Austin continue to be a d-bag? I agree with whoever said Austin is more in love with the idea of being in love than he is actually in love with Liz.

**Blogzie** · 09-06-2015, 07:54 AM

Should Julia get second place she will need the $50,000.00 to get facial reconstruction surgery so she ends up looking as little like Liz as possible. With any remaining money she can change her name and relocate to another state or country. What Liz has done on the feeds all summer has caused irreparable damage to both of them.

**KeninVA** · 09-06-2015, 07:57 AM

Some additional notes:

I did not know that Julia is a Leukemia survivor. She now has a special place with me, given my own circumstances.

I have decided that Vanessa's best final 3 is Liz/Jmac, and her best F2 is Jmac, though I could make a case for Liz.

Jmac's best final 3 is Steve and Vanessa, with Vanessa as his best final 2.

Austin's best F3 is Liz and Steve, though really, I think if Austin ends up in the F2, he beats anyone in the house, and should probably have to win his way into a F2 chair.

Steve's best Final 3 is Jmac/Liz. With Jmac as the F2.

The Julia is the best F2 for all of them, but I don't think she makes it past this round.

Vanessa told Austin, the main threats for winning F4 PoV are Steve and Liz. I was a little shocked to hear her say it, since I have thought it for awhile.

Vanessa clearly was not planning on keeping Liz over Julia, even after the Austin win, until she started talking to Austin. (Seeing the board clearly is so much easier out here, then in there).

**Myragirl** · 09-06-2015, 08:26 AM

I read a James exit interview (I think by THR), where he mentioned 1 thing that caught my attention. He would never vote for Austin in F2. His argument was that Austin said repeatedly that he just wanted to make jury, be with Liz, and gain notoriety. He understands it's a strategy, but compared to others who have been playing the game to get to the end, he would never vote for Austin. Anyone think he means it? And if he can convince the jury to see things his way?

**IM2L844** · 09-06-2015, 08:39 AM

It should be clear to Steve that this is the perfect, maybe his only, opportunity for him to rid himself of the source of much of his angst, Vanessa. I can't imagine that he wouldn't.

Not saying that it would necessarily be the smart thing for Steve to do, but that I think it will be his instinct.

**Twirlly** · 09-06-2015, 08:41 AM

I love how Vanessa keeps telling the twins that they have to decide which one is the best to stay. She offers the pros and cons of each, tells them to weigh it up. Ummm, they don't have a vote!!

Liz said to Julia that she has a better shot of making it to the end. Her reasoning is if Liz stays then her and Austin still remain the duo to split up and if both are on the block Liz is the one that goes. The twins know they are playing for $50k and are now looking for the best way to get that.

One thing I found interesting, is that while Vanessa has repeated over and over that Julia asked her for advice in who to choose in the comp, Julia told Liz that she did not ask Vanessa, Vanessa just volunteered the info. But, when in a group and Vanessa has said Julia asked her, Julia has never said that it didn't happen. Is Julia lying to Liz? Why would Julia allow Vanessa to continue with that story?

Three weeks ago I would have never thought Austin would have a real shot at winning, but, I believe he does. He has no chance with women on the outside after showing his colors in that department, so he better hope he wins.

**Petefish44** · 09-06-2015, 08:59 AM

Good morning all,
I thought it was interesting that Steve said in his solitary muttering a last night that he wanted to scare Vanessa. Perhaps today he will imply to her
that there is logic in putting her up instead of Julia as replacement. He would be a fool if he actually does that but Steve can be a bit of a fool...

**Twirlly** · 09-06-2015, 09:19 AM

It is out there to everyone that Vanessa and JMac promised Steve to vote how he wants them to. That is Vanessa's out to Austwins for sending Liz home instead of Julia. What she says to Austin right now is just a "cya" thing. She can tell him how she really wanted to keep Liz, but she had to keep her word to Steve to protect herself. Everyone in the house knows Julia is the best goat and will do what they can to take her to the F2 as there is no way she wins.

**belle1** · 09-06-2015, 09:21 AM

JMac has been very smart during all of the drama last night. I had said earlier after the noms that he would take cover until the fur settled and he did just that. I wish that he would talk to us, I really want to know what he is thinking. Perhaps he doesn't because he trust no one, even TPTB. As a fan of the game he knows about DR influences so would not want to give them information about his plans.

**nonobadfish** · 09-06-2015, 09:50 AM

I keep reading your comments, Ken, where you think JMac being evicted works against him in the F2. I'm truly not trying to be ornery here....but, shockingly I think the exact opposite. In my view, being evicted is the strongest part of his speech to the jury. His speech: I was evicted, fought my way back in, battled all the odds to become the first evicted BBUS player to make it to the finals. To me that gives him a step-up on winning. It's the perfect 'Worst to First' story.

Of course, he has to get there first.

**belle1** · 09-06-2015, 09:51 AM

The other thing I find interesting about JMac is he has lead Steve to believe that he was recruited for the game. Steve told Vanessa some weeks ago that J Mac was recruited while playing golf.

**sdkgeo** · 09-06-2015, 09:58 AM

I'm flashing back to a lot of the action yesterday after the veto because I missed most of it. Wow, Austin posing and preening with the veto around in neck in the bedroom was just cringeworthy. I have to agree that he seems to regard the showmance as a ticket to more airtime. Of course, Liz was also using him as a meatshield.

I would love to see Steve try to scare Vanessa about the renom. I don't think he will actually put her up, because he knows he has to get one of the trio out and with Liz in particular being so pissed off, he better hope that she is the one voted out. If he does that to Vanessa though it is just the nail in the coffin. Yes, I also believe that he is one of the next targets that she wants out anyway.

**nonobadfish** · 09-06-2015, 10:04 AM

I think that Vanessa's best influence is over the twins (and even they are on to her to a certain extent.) I'm still trying to figure out (from yesterday) how their brains haven't clicked on the things she told them that tell a different story than the one she's verbalizing:

1. Vanessa told the twins to make their decision, and she's vote how they want. She has previously this week made a fairly big show to everyone about her hands being tied because she gave her word to Steve that she will vote how HE wants. (This doesn't tie in with "My word is all I have. My integrity is my only ally."

2. Vanessa told Julia (privately yesterday afternoon) that she would have used the PoV to take Liz off the block if she has won, solidifying that the twins are her first priority over Austin. (Julia hasn't yet caught on that she, Julia, would have then been the renom against Austin if Vanessa had done that. She didn't even blink an eye.)

3. Vanessa told Julia/Liz/Austin that her advice to Julia in the PoV had nothing to do with her game....that choosing Austin over JMac made no difference in the outcome for Vanessa. (Vanessa needed Julia to lose, so of course it made a difference to her game. The twins MAYBE realized this late last night...they skirted around it for a bit. But they let her say it without a single question.)

Two things I take from that: 1. Vanessa's slipping and not making the effort to keep her lies straight. 2. The twins are the two remaining in the house who really don't get the game at all. We're going to be better off with them gone.

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