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  • Live Feed Discussion-September 19

    Here's where you can discuss what's happening on the Live Feeds.
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  • #2
    Morning all. Yay, Steve won part 2 of the HOH comp last night so we have some suspense going in to Wednesday's finale. Are Steve and Vanessa being genuine with each other or are they each planning to take Liz for the easy win. I bet Vanessa will be on Steve constantly until Wednesday.

    Comment


    • #3
      Morning geo, and all who follow,

      Steve wins part two, plans on taking Liz to end, but is starting to worry that Vanessa suspects that is what he will do. I believe Vanessa is well aware of Steve's plan, and so the psychological warfare will commence. She has told Steve lets not tell her til Sunday or Monday. Steve said to us, I have to back off, and so he will let Vanessa decide the timing of this. That gives her time to prep Liz on her plans with Steve, and why Liz should play along with her. Whether she buys it or not, is an unknown to me.

      Next post, why Steve will lose to Liz, even if he evicts Vanessa. Making his potential win of final HoH, a pyrrhic victory for him.

      Comment


      • RUSSELL
        RUSSELL commented
        Editing a comment
        Okay Ken yer startin' to freak me out here!!! I even looked that word up and still not sure I really know what it means. I think you're just throwing them at me now for your own amusement!!!!

    • #4
      Steve winning part 2, changes my post I threatened everyone with yesterday. I was going to lay out why both would lose if they cut Vanessa, but I am only going to focus on Steve. If you want to debate this, I ask that you use the comment function, so that the thread stays compact, and I can find your responses.
      My thesis is grounded in a few assumptions, so I will state them now.
      1. The format will be the same as last year. No opening statement, 6 questions agreed to by the jury, 3 to each finalist. The last two questions will be why do you deserve to win? Vanessa will get to ask 1 question to either finalist. The jury then deliberates for a few minutes, then comes back to vote.
      2. There will be a jury coach, and the jury will discuss the pros and cons of each F3, but won’t know the match up.
      Vanessa will not vote for Steve, if he evicts her. She will value Liz’s loyalty, over Steve’s backstabs, and so will be justified in not voting for him to win.

      The premise of “bagging the big player”, as a game changer for the jury, I believe is flawed. It is well documented in psychology that changing someone’s mind is hard. Google the “Affect Hueristic”, confirmation bias, or cultural cognition for the background on this area of study. The bottom line, people make up their minds, and even when faced with new facts, will find it hard to change their opinions. Had Steve evicted her, in F5 or F4, where the knowledge of what he had done could be part of the jury round table discussions, it might have had an effect. But making the boot at F3 will not have enough of a psychological impact to change a juror’s opinion, already formed, of the Liz/Steve pairing they will be presented with.

      So, in the run up to the vote, the jury will basically be making judgments, on an unknown pair, not knowing who the F2 actually are, nor seeing the dramatic event of Steve evicting Vanessa. Vanessa comes out to join them, and this is the very first time that they know Steve booted Vanessa. I believe the jury is going to know that this was a no brainer decision, and so won’t give him the extra credit he thinks he will get for it. James said repeatedly, that Steve was Austin’s lapdog, not Vanessa’s. Jmac knows Steve was not in Vanessa’s pocket, and in post show interviews has said he thinks Steve only played a marginally better game than Liz did.

      Steve’s problem, the house evicted Julia, and he, as HoH, let them do it. His biggest mistake was allowing Liz, with a much better comp record, with a much bigger target as the bull’s-eye of the Austwins, and with a vastly superior social game, into the final 3. This is the decision he will have to own as the F6 HoH.

      Liz evicted Becky, viewed as a huge competition threat, and James, both a huge competition threat, and a big obstacle to her alliance making it to F5. James has said in post show interviews, he underappreciated Liz’s game, and gave her credit, in his interview with Julie, for taking him out. Liz also demonstrated loyalty; an attribute that generally tends to resonate with jury’s and will definitely resonate with James and with Meg, the two most loyal non-pair bond, in the house. Conversely, backstabbers, who were loyal to no one, such as Dan was viewed in S14, don’t tend to do well in front of the jury. Everyone knows Steve was disloyal, and while a necessary game move, his loss of Jmac lost him the ability to make the case that he was loyal to anyone.

      Jmac is going to have very little influence on the Jury’s decision. He is not invested in Steve at all, based on post show interviews, and is not going to be a passionate advocate for him. Meg and James don’t like Jmac, and other than his back to the wall game, was not viewed as being influential or admired. His opinion will not carry significant weight with James, as opposed to Meg's influence on him.

      Meg does not like Steve, did not like his game or game persona, and stated repeatedly she would not vote for him in the end. Given a choice between Liz and Steve, I believe she will pick Liz.

      So, Steve evicting Vanessa is going to be a pyrrhic victory. Steve will make a dramatic speech for TV, but the jury won’t see it, blunting its impact. I really believe that in a Liz/Steve matchup, Austin, Julia, Meg and James, will have predetermined, in their own minds, that they are voting for Liz to win, and that with Vanessa’s justifiable vote for Liz to win, Steve will have evicted the best player, but come in second anyway.

      Whether Vanessa can use this over the next 5 days to influence Steve is unknown to me. Since I believe she is going to evict Steve anyway, she does not have to worry about Liz’s perception of F2 deals on her vote out. I also think she can neutralize Liz, by telling her, don’t screw me over, and I will definitely take you to the end. I believe Liz is going to be passive in the run up to the final this week. She will of course make some appeals, but won’t try to actively counter Vanessa’s strategy talks with Steve, and Steve has already said, I have to back off, or Vanessa is going to know I am planning to evict her, so he won’t share much with Liz, in fear that Vanessa will boot him in the end.

      Vanessa has to make Steve believe, his gamble is wrong. By evicting her, it will be a hard emotional decision, and he will lose anyway.

      Again, if you want to debate this, please do so by using comments, so that the thread stays compact. If it gets any legs, I will ask a mod to move it to its own thread, so we can continue the discussion.
      Last edited by KeninVA; 09-19-2015, 07:05 AM.

      Comment


      • Walleye
        Walleye commented
        Editing a comment
        Sorry I'm late to the party, I was visiting my sister and her kids today.

        So let me start by saying if Vanessa goes to F2 she wins. No brainer for me.

        If Steve stabs out Vanessa I think he can win. As to KeninVA point about psychology and changing minds, I disagree the shock won't be big enough to change minds. I think most of the jury members expect Vanessa to win at this point or to for sure get there. If she doesn't it will be a major shock and minds will get reset to consider the current situation.

        Secondly, I agree that Steve doesn't have the greatest public speaking skills, however I don't think Liz does either without any help. That brings me to my last point. Liz has been told what to do during this game, even during her Hohs by Austin and Vanessa. I think that is also the perception of the jury. Steve is a super fan and has seen all of the F2 speeches and the questions. I don't think Liz will hold up without her usual coaching. I think Steve beats Liz by a close margin.

      • KeninVA
        KeninVA commented
        Editing a comment
        Walleye , thanks for playing. I think I am in the minority position here. Given that my mantra for BB, is that it is all about my self interest, I think I have to root for Steve to win part 3, cut Vanessa, and lose to Liz, fulfilling my prediction.

        Plus, it fulfils the @karmatrain alliance, by having one of the twins win the game. .

        This is a top season, so much game drama and suspense that we still don't know what is going to happen in the next gate.

      • Walleye
        Walleye commented
        Editing a comment
        Well KeninVA, Vanessa should win based on game play, but she has to get there. I agree with your last sentence whole heartedly. It's amazing that we still don't know what is going to happen.😀

    • #5
      I think it's dangerous for either of them to take Liz. She has two guaranteed votes, so she has a easier row to hoe to win unless everyone else see Liz as Vanessa's minion.

      Comment


      • KeninVA
        KeninVA commented
        Editing a comment
        I think it is less dangerous for Vanessa then for Steve. I don't think James will vote for Liz over Vanessa, and I actually think Steve would vote for her over Liz, even if Vanessa evicts him, since he will be worried about being perceived as bitter, and will want to vote for the "best player" in his mind. His key mistake, Steve is not viewed as the "best player" in any fundamental way by the jury.

      • herms is here
        herms is here commented
        Editing a comment
        I agree Sergei. At this point it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

      • Blogzie
        Blogzie commented
        Editing a comment
        Who is Sergei and what have you done with him?

    • #6
      Good Morning BBU'rs!

      Liz loses and it looks like Liz will be in the F2 no matter who wins final HoH. I'm rooting for a Vanessa win cus I don't want Liz getting 500k but I would have liked Steve to get 50k. I don't think Steve will win the 500k if he takes Liz or Vanessa.

      Comment


      • #7
        Good morning all. Why did Vanassa take Meg's bed. It has been hard sneaking round to check on BB. If Steve wins the third round, he has to take Liz. His odds of winning are better against her. I hope Vanassa wins the last round.

        Comment


        • #8
          As a firm #TeamVanessa all season, I really want her to win the final HoH and be the one to take whoever to F2. This season will be anticlimactic if she doesn't win IMO. Please Vanessa bring it home!

          Comment


          • #9
            Steve cannot win against Vanessa, so he might as well take Liz (assuming he beats Vanessa in round three). The win for either of them will be close. The pleasure of seeing Vanessa get so close, to only end up a Jury vote will be delightful for me.

            Go Steve. (I choked a bit on that.)

            Comment


            • KeninVA
              KeninVA commented
              Editing a comment
              I think he won't win against Liz either, and losing to Liz is going to torture his soul for a lot longer than losing to Vanessa. That is my silver lining.

          • #10
            Wow ! my mind is going a mile a minute thinking about all I've read this morning . I love all your points of view . I agree that Steve will get 2nd no matter who he picks . My only worry is stilllllllllll AUSTIN! He has a way to persuade people by lying profusely ! He will work on James and Meg he will tell them and anyone else especially all the girls of bad things that Vanessa said about them . and girls do. Hold grudges. I really really hope I am wrong about him. , but i wouldn't be surprised if he is doing it daily because he doesNt want Vanessa to win no matter what.

            Comment


            • Luanne
              Luanne commented
              Editing a comment
              Many will disagree with me but Vanassa did not trash any house guest. She lied, misled them, and broke deals. The worst she said was that Beck was a rat. I will admit I have not been able to watch the feeds the past two weeks.

            • Myragirl
              Myragirl commented
              Editing a comment
              Luanne, I completely agree with you.

          • #11
            Will the curse of Meg's bed be Vanessa's undoing? Tune in Wednesday to find out!

            Comment


            • MrsVee
              MrsVee commented
              Editing a comment
              Maybe......? maybe JUDAS? 😈 Really wish they could give us site into the jury house now till Wed

          • #12
            I read somewhere that Vanessa was given muscle relaxers I took them once and it knocked me out. She better get off them to have a clear head for round 3 😃😴

            Comment


            • #13
              Part of me like the fact I don't know who Vanessa Steve or Liz would take to final 2. Part of me don't care because personally I don't have a favorite out of these 3.

              Steve played a good game, but his insecurities, his lack of a Social Game and not able to make a smart decision under pressure will not make him win this game.

              Liz, was protected by Austin and influenced by Vanessa and Austin. I think she played Vanessa's game not hers. I think she was the typical mean girl from High School and a fool to be in a Showmance, especially with Austin. She never should have made it this far.

              Vanessa don't like her personally. Her manic personality drove me crazy. Her paranoia and crying made me want to turn the channel. However she deserves the win. She turned every HOH her own by manipulating everyone in the house.

              The jury members should have evicted Vanessa when they had the chance, get rid of the twins immediately after they figured out the twist and break up Austin and Liz's showmance.

              Right now I'm more interested in who will win AFHG. James or JMac.

              Comment


              • #14
                I think Vanessa will win the $500k even if she is in Jury - she will convince everyone that this is a rule change and can be done. NEW TWIST. she. will. do. it.

                Comment


                • BettyBoo
                  BettyBoo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  And as her deadly green vapor spreads out, Julie will kiss her ring and Les will sign all three checks to her, along with a contract for her new show called 'Betting on Big Eyes'.

              • #15
                I. Personally feel that Johnny will win f2f, but it could be a close one with James as second.

                Comment


                • MrsVee
                  MrsVee commented
                  Editing a comment
                  People I know that just watch the show love JMAC because of his DR's . But all us mice know how funny James is so. I hope that theirs some kind of tie and they both get $25.000🎸🃏

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