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**sdkgeo** · 07-05-2015, 06:46 AM

Morning all. I can't believe that people are still up. I still think Jason is hilarious. He just doesn't care. He is going to say what is on his mind.

**KeninVA** · 07-05-2015, 07:27 AM

Morning Geo and all who follow,

Miss me much?

Having caught up on the show and some of the back story, my take on the house.

This year, for me, the players are :
Austin, Jeff, Jackie, Vanessa, JMac,

The played are:
Shelli, Clay, Steve, Becky, Liz

Everyone else falls somewhere in the middle.

My framework for evaluating the house is to construct an affinity list for each player, and a target list. The affinity list is an ordinal ranking of who each player wants to keep in the game and would vote out anyone lower on the list, before voting out someone higher on the list. The target list represents who they want out next, normally ordered by threat, but can also be driven by personality, and availability. So, as an example Shelly has Clay as number one on her Affinity list now, and ranks Audry ahead of James, Meg and Jason, but behind Becky, Liz and Vanessa. Her number one target is Da, with Jason, James, and Meg following behind.

The reason the house is mushed into a fur ball, right now, is that no two people, even in close alliances, appear to have matching affinity lists. In a normal season, what I have observed is that alliances, even large ones, have reasonable affinity lists that line up reasonably well, and differences in Target lists sort themselves out by each alliance member gaining power and removing threats to themselves (or who they believe are threats to themselves). When a played member of the alliance gains power, typically a player steers them to make a move that actually benefits that player more then the HoH. So right now, we are seeing the fall out from this misaligned affinity list match up. None of the members have affinity lists that match up more than 2 deep. The members of the alliance cannot actually agree on who should be protected, and so they want to protect everyone. Shelli actually sees this, I think, but lets herself get seduced by Clay, and so re-thinks everything and every decision.

Right now, Austin has pulled Liz and Vanessa into an alliance, that I believe is real, and has potential to go far. Austin understands the game, as does Vanessa, and is able to exercise some influence in the house. Vanessa has less influence, right now, mainly due to her cool personality.

Jeff and Jackie are in a secret, well hidden alliance, with Jeff out front, acting as an influencer, but Jackie able to move into many groups and fade into the background. But, she and Jeff touch base every few days. And Jackie keeps her mouth shut, as does Jeff, as too their affinity for each other. I was actually astonished that a house full of supposed super fans, let a known couple, with a well established pre-existing relationship, who admitted talking together a few times a week, actually get past the first eviction, even with Jace's flaws.

So right now, the actual groups I see are: Vanessa, Austin, Liz; Clay, Shelli (with Shell more devoted than Clay); Jeff, Jackie; Jason, Da. Everyone else is operating on the periphery of these core groups, and many are floating between multiple sets. The house is going to need to winnow down a few more seats before we see anything firm up.

Going forward I expect Meg will end up as the nom. That sets up an interesting dynamic, since it gives Vanessa a potential opportunity to flip the house, if Da, Jason or Vanessa get the 7th call, and realize that only 5 votes would be needed to keep Da in the game, and knock Meg, one of the original "inside group" out of the game. Vanessa would have to weigh pulling Shelli into her orbit, vs creating a line in the sand. And she would need Audry to come on board, which might be too much risk this early. But, stranger things have happened.

I don't expect I will be posting daily, but the lure of commenting on this crazy game is just to strong.

**sdkgeo** · 07-05-2015, 07:40 AM

Morning Ken. Nice analysis. I have been trying to put in to words why this season seems to be such a mess. You hit it on the head, the lack of alignment of affinity lists. Even Clay and Shelli who are a couple cannot agree (Of course they're more of a personal couple than a game couple I think).

Good to see you.

**armaxie** · 07-05-2015, 08:34 AM

I have never posted here but have faithfully read the posts through many seasons of Big Brother. My first go to read is the analyzing of KeninVA. I have sorely missed it this season. Please continue to post your daily thoughts. They are always my favorite read of the day.

**nonobadfish** · 07-05-2015, 09:16 AM

OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH

KenInVA IS BACK!!!!!

Made my whole dang day. No...my whole dang BB season. I'm so glad go see you! I haven't even read what you posted yet so I don't know how many different ways I disagree with you, Ken, but can't wait to find out! (And I'm sending hugs to Mrs. KenInVA.)

And so glad you are posting, armaxie!

Going to read Ken's post now so that I can argue....wait, what if we agree??????? Wow. That would be something. (I've missed you all year, Ken...been thinking of y'all.)

**BettyBoo** · 07-05-2015, 09:42 AM

I will be watching the Jeff/Clay dynamic to see if it continues. They did do the shower summit (pictures in updates), which is the equivalent of a pinkie swear. Will they go on mono y mono OR is this just a detent? Thinking like they will jettison Austin early and pull in John as their disposable 3rd, since Austin has an independent group of his own which makes him a threat, not a loyal ally. I would love to see Austin toss Clay out. The game's more fun when there's some real duking it out to win.

Jeff had the disadvantage of being known, but the advantage of having been thru the reality show experience. The longer he stays, the stronger he gets. But, will the other players realize it and target him? Doubt it since they're going after straw men like poor orphan Steve now. So is Jeff the new Derrick?

If Da miraculously survives, she could stir stuff up, but the house is like a bassomatic already right now so who could tell. Meanwhile Audrey is still safe to do her ear worm work. Amazing. How much is her strength to mist them & how much is TPTB playing puppet master (as a non-Liz/Julie nom would be)? Is she the new Dan?

Meanwhile, while I enjoy trying to make sense out this messy house, still don't have any real faves, though admit to a soft spot for poor little misunderstood Steve. Also don't hate anybody. Dislike their game more than them as people. I would say I'm more curious than enthusiastic about the season and players, but remain hopeful to get wowed by play or personality. Frankly, I'd even welcome a day in the house w/She Who Must Not Be Named. It would be like eating a really hot pepper that makes you weep & puke, but which you brag about surviving. Best, it wouldn't be DULL!.

Last question. I haven't heard that anyone got a call from Kathy. Did I miss it? Thx to DANINVA for detailed thoughtful observations. Have missed your daily read on the house guests.

**nonobadfish** · 07-05-2015, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by KeninVA

This year, for me, the players are :
Austin, Jeff, Jackie, Vanessa, JMac,

The played are:
Shelli, Clay, Steve, Becky, Liz

Everyone else falls somewhere in the middle.

I'm going to get to your list of players, BUT FIRST let me say I agree with geo....you hit it on the head. That's probably the reason that so many of my posts include something like this question, "Can someone explain who is in what alliance?" I haven't been able to figure it out, but you're right (dang it)...their affinity lists aren't the same so it seems like it's just one huge alliance with subsets which then feels like there are no real alliances at all. It's been entertaining to say the least.

Now for your players/played list: I agree on Austin, Jeff, Vanessa, JMac. I just don't see Jackie as a player yet, although I get your point. She reminds me too much of Veronica/Victoria whatever last year, but I'll keep watching her and see if I change my mind. And I think Liz is more of a player than I thought she would be, but at a disadvantage because she can't play too hard (yet) since she has to keep attention off of her due to the twin twist. And I see Jason as a player. One note on Austin, though....I think he knows the game (there are videos of Austin doing BB game analysis in previous years), but sometimes he seems clueless on who is actually on his side, so that's a negative for me.

I bet it's fun for you, Ken, to watch Vanessa since she has a degree in game theory (or maybe not that, but something like that). She started slow, but I like her.

Because I'm a mo' drama mama and not an analyst, I only have likes and dislikes and maybes.

Like:
Johnny Mac (I loved him due to his excellent guitar skills before he ever started, and he KNOWS the game and is playing it smart)
Vanessa (I'm not sure she knows the game, but she knows the theory, and that's fun to watch)
Steve (He DEFINITELY knows the game...and I'm hoping he'll form a real alliance with Johnny Mac and Vanessa)
Jason (He DEFINITELY knows the game, and he makes me laugh).
DaVonne (although I know Da hasn't got a chance to make it far because she is too opinionated and can't win comps. But she makes me laugh, too).

Dislike:
Clay, Clay, Clay, Clay
Shelly, Shelly, Shelly
Audrey, Audrey, Audrey (I dislike them all in multiples.)
James is also on my dislike list because of the things he says about women. And for humping and slapping the giraffe. I think I like him, and then he says something gross/misogynistic.

Not sure about:
Austin (I like that he knows the game, but something bugs me. He may become a favorite later, but not yet.)
Liz/Julia (I didn't think I would like them because they're recruits, but I like the way they lay low, and I want to see both of them in the game before I decide)
Jackie (So far I feel like she's not sure where she is. Maybe she's doing it on purpose).
Jeff (Sometimes I like him. Sometimes I don't)
Becky (I didn't think I would like her, but she sure can compete and she hasn't been obnoxious, so there's hope.)
Meg (I'm not sure...she's a recruit, and I don't normally like recruits because they make stupid moves and are there for the wrong reasons.)

Assuming Da is a goner this week, my favs from most favorite to least favorite are:
1. John
2. Steve
3. Jason
4. Vanessa
5. Jeff
6. Liz/Julia
7. Austin
8. Becky
9. Meg
10. Jackie
11. James
12. Shelli
13. Audrey
14. Clay

**magoopy** · 07-05-2015, 10:01 AM

Happy Sunday! Good to have your analysis bad here KeninVA! I don't want to see Day go, but surely don't want to see Meg leave if she goes up. Geo, O also really enjoy Jason and his no filter!

**Lexie** · 07-05-2015, 11:38 AM

Welcome Back Ken!

**cpamama** · 07-05-2015, 01:15 PM

Oh, no, NO NO! I did not know that about James! I think I'm going to cry, Maybe, I'll pretend that I didn't read that.

I just don't like Jeff (I did like him on TAR) and I don't know why he and Jackie were not targeted week 1. Pretending I didn't hear that about James, this is my loose "like" order: Any of them could acually swap with one or two right next to them. I don't have any strong likes (Like Donny) or dislikes (like Frankie). I actually would like for Da to stay as well as Audrey for the drama factor, but looks like Da is history.

1. James
2. John
3. Steve
4. Vanessa
5. Liz/Julia
6. Austin
7. Audrey
8. Meg
9. Jason
10. Becky
11. Shelli
12. Jackie
13. Clay
14. Jeff

**Luanne** · 07-05-2015, 01:49 PM

Good afternoon every one. I was so HAPPY to see Ken posted. I love how he looks at the game and breaks it down. Ken, I hope you drop in and give us your take on the players from time to time.

My like and dislike of the house guest change from day to day. I loved Da'Vonne the first week and wish she had played a low key game. I started to not like her when she kept on and on about Steve being a rat. She was mean about it. I like Meg and think she is more than a ditzy blond. I liked Becky when she was first HOH. In watching her in the group she wants to be that "cool" girl in the cool group. I like the way James handled his HOH. He made a decision and stuck with it. He does not repeat everything. I have not been watching when he is disrespectful to the ladies. I will have to watch for myself. Liz is growing on me. John, I hope he makes it far in the game along with Steve. Jason, I can take him or leave him. Clay, typical Jock. Shelli would be a much better player without Clay. I like Austin and Vanessa but do not think they will go far in the game. They are not liked by many. Jeff is my least favorite. He could have left with Jace. Jackie not sure. She may have more game since she is not on the block. Right now I do not have a favorite for the win. I need to watch the feeds more.

**glk1943** · 07-05-2015, 01:51 PM

I'm not a poster either, but have followed BBU for years......so GLAD Ken is back!!

**cutencuddly** · 07-05-2015, 02:04 PM

My ordering

1. James
2. Jason
3. Da'Vonne
4. Meg
5. Vanessa
6. Steve
7. Liz/Julia
8. Jeff
9. Becky
10. Jackie
11. John
12. Austin
13. Audrey
14. Clay
15. Shelli

Shelli and Clay would be higher than Audrey if they were on board with getting her out. And they're not entirely stupid about this -- she would be a good meat shield for them -- but I don't like that they're gonna help Audrey make what could easily be a long run.

**nonobadfish** · 07-05-2015, 02:21 PM

CPAMama, I could be COMPLETELY wrong about James. I've not liked some of the things he has said, but since I haven't been able to watch as much, I might have taken them out of context. So don't listen to me!!!!!! (Luanne likes him and Cute likes him, so I'm in the minority and probably wrong.)

glk1943....we need you to post! Glad to see you.

I wish y'all could see John play the guitar. If I can figure out how, I'm going to send Lexie/Rob a link and see if we can get it approved. I don't know why it's important, but it seems to show a different side of him (a very talented side).

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