Live Feed Discussion-July 8

[sdkgeo]

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[TTOTambz2]

Aha... so Day finally talked to Audrey who indicates she knows she's a target.

Will TPTB get on Audrey to make a deal with Day to rekindle their original deal? Could we actually get the flip?

Couple of things happened last night that might help move the arrow in Day's direction:

Slay have yet to tell Vanessa about the twin twist & Austin still hasn't been told either. Once Vanessa/Austin figure out Slay have known, but didn't tell them will that help them to realize Day/Jason would be better to work with? Obviously Liz/Julia trusts Day right now b/c she was the one to tell her about the speculation.

Jason set up Meg by telling her she should go tell Liz she knows (which Meg is saying she's going to do) Once Meg does that it's going to look shady to Liz/Austin who'll maybe wonder if either she started the talk or that Jeff/Meg/Slay are all in cahoots. Will Meg go one worse & blame it on Day? if she does it will backfire on her & it will give Liz a reason to tell Austin (who she hasn't told what Day said yet). THAT might give Austin a reason to trust Day more & Vanessa prefers Day over Meg anyway.

I could see Steve wanting to keep Day b/c he's smart enough to know the showmance has to be broken up. And recently he's been getting closer to Jason so maybe...

At this point Day has Jason for sure and has really been pushing James on his promise to keep her & their original Final 3 alliance. She's also asked Vanessa, Liz, Steve and John (but knows John won't do it). And she's extended the olive branch to Audrey.

Much will depend on what occurs today with the twin twist as Austin is currently the pivotal vote. If he gets ticked at Slay/Jeff for not telling him about the twist he might switch to keep Day (while also hurting jeff's #'s). An Austin vote for Day is 3 votes b/c then Vanessa/Liz will also vote to keep her. Then Austin/Day/Jason just needs to convince Steve to keep her, which I think they can do.

Plus you've got the never can tell what she'll do vote of Audrey.

As per the who won't vote I think Day is also being super smart by selecting Jeff, Jackie & Becky not to vote b/c if they don't tell who won the call then those 3 selections are perfect since anyone would think Day would cancel Clay and Audrey's vote. By not picking them (again if the house doesn't get told who won the twist) it's still leaves room for speculation it was someone else.


I hope so. I want to see Day stay & then win HOH with Audrey so they can put up Barbie & Ken on the block. It annoyed me they treated Day like she was a leper this week & I'd like to see Slay deal with being ignored by everyone, especially since they think it's their house.

[BettyBoo]

Hi, we were typing at the same time. You eloquently hit at the necessity of breaking up the Ken & Barbie pac. The key is to keep Da. Would love it to happen, though (many ughs) it would mean Audrey stays around too. But the next question is always who's the NEXT target. Thursday s/b interesting.

[BettyBoo]

OK, after reading what I can in updates, the one thing that bugs me is I can't see if the other players realize that Clay & Shelli must be broken up. Instead it appears too many want to play w/Slay aka Ken & Barbie. From what I see they're the only functioning alliance right now. The other talked about alliances haven't built trust yet. Am I missing any Ken & Barbie must go conversations?

I'll be glad to get BBAD again tonight after the Evil Empire (Comcast) wires me up today. Adios ATT who didn't want to negotiate to keep me as customer.

[nonobadfish]

BettyBoo, I think the others are aware they need to break Barbie/Ken up, but they're not a focus yet. Vanessa has told Barbie/Ken that they need to stop hanging out together so much. Right now the rest of the house is focused on the Twin Witch Hunt, Da's Twist, and What the Heck Is Audrey Saying Now...so it might take awhile before they get to Shelli/Clay. But I think they'll get there sooner than later. Hopefully. Because I'd actually rather Clay go home next week over any of them...even Audrey. Gracious....I didn't even realize that until I typed it out loud.

[KeninVA]

Morning geo, and all who follow.

Da works the house, Liz is known as the twin to everyone but Austin, and Shelli starts seeing Jeff''s game.

Let me start by saying I have spent scant time on the feeds. The camera guy is driving me insane with random switches out of game convo's to move to a scene where someone is disucssing their bowel movements or sex dreams or some other, random bit of info. It makes it hard to stay interested, because for me, most of these people are not particularly interesting. And Jeff is creeping, and Clay is just hard to listen to, being a better educated version of Beast Mode Cowboy, with none of the endearing craziness or earnestness. He just comes off as entitled. So, none of what follows should be taken as ground truth, since much is based on quick FB and reading recaps.

Da is still going home tomorrow (IMO). She is being told by everyone, sure I will vote for you, but soon realizes none of them are actually telling her the truth. She has really mishandled her game from the beginning, starting with getting zero advantage out of her BB free pass in week one, and in fact hurting herself with Shelli. Now the twin twist and Last Laugh fall into her lap, and she and her close ally Jason, can't convert it into forward momentum.

The Twin reveal has been kind of a bust. Everyone knows, no on confronts Liz/Julia, and now Da has let Liz/Julia in on the house suspicions, giving her time to prepare. She will be at some increased risk going forward, but not necessarily at the top of everyones target list.

Shelli and Clay have a discussion early this morning, and at least to me, it seems clear she see's what Jeff is doing in pulling people around him. Shelli tells Clay she trusts Vanessa 100 percent more that Clay.

Vanessa is the player to watch for me. I still think she and Austin are neck and neck as best players, but she edged into the lead for me, last night, when Steve (one of her side allies) told her about the Twins. Vanessa now has a 2 some with Austin, a threesome when Liz is added, Steve on the side, and the named Sleeper Cell alliance with Austin, S/C, Audrey, and Vanessa. She has also put out feelers to Jeff.

Vanessa is playing the game without a real confidant, so it is hard to understand her overall strategy yet, but her tactics are clear. She keeps her mouth shut, and so is not the source of gossip in the house, only sharing some details of conversations with Austin or Shelli. And never anything she is asked to keep to herself (Steve told her about the twins, and she has not shared yet.). I think she is a good read of the house, and is low on everyones target list right now (at most third for some people, behind Liz and Audrey) and has been building up relationships with Shelli, Clay, Austin, Liz, Steve. Her one flaw is that she is a little reserved, and with this house, that is a detriment. I think all her alliances are "real" for right now, in that people she has the deals with won't be nominated or voted out by her, but she is not a ride or die girl, and is not going to blow her game up for some misguided sense of loyalty. Can she convert any of these relationships into unwavering fealty? I don't have an answer for that. I am not sure anyone in the house, except maybe Da and Jason have that kind of bond.

The twin twist and Da's fate will be the two topics of interest today.

[KeninVA]

One additional Vanessa "deal" is with Audrey, which she made the night of the night after the big blow up with Da.

[Delvoire]

your Vanessa breakdown reminds me of Derrick. The way he surrounded himself with close people but never revealed too much but at the same time, shared just enough. It will be interesting to see how far she pulls it off.

[BettyBoo]

I know I've seen pix of Austin hugging on Liz (and/ or Liz Lite), but he is the last one to notice they're two people??!!

[nonobadfish]

Morning to geo, TTO, KenInVA (who is NOT part of the Barbie/Ken alliance in the game), and BettyBoo. Last night Walleye (who often watches Vanessa play poker) said that she definitely has the ability to lie easily without others knowing. That makes me feel better about what she's doing. Taking that insight and Ken's above analysis, I think Vanessa is the player I'm most interested to watch as well. I'd like her to smile and have a little more fun...she needs to work on her sense of humor so that she's fun to watch as well as interesting to watch, but as long as I know that she's NOT ride or die with Shelli/Clay/Barbie/Ken, then I'm good with her.

I did watch late into the night (I told y'all that I was going to and I'm paying for it this morning). My feelings after watching are that there is not much chance for Da to stay unless Liz becomes more urgent in her talks with Austin (right now he's saying he promised Meg his vote, but he doesn't know about the twin twist). If Austin switches to Da, then it's going to come down to Vanessa. If Vanessa has stated that it's better for her game to keep Da over Meg, but at the moment she's voting to evict Da. If Austin and Liz switch and Austin tells that to Vanessa, Vanessa might switch too. And she could get Steve to switch. So that would be Jason, Liz, Austin, Vanessa and Steve for Da....and that's all she needs. And Da did hug it out with Audrey, but who knows with her. But Da's gameplay is still poor, and I'm not counting on her staying.

The best thing that happened last night, though? Audrey went back into Audrey mode RIGHT AFTER I SAID THAT SHE WAS CALMING DOWN AND WAS LIKEABLE when she was just talking and not gaming. I think I jinxed her. But for whatever reason, she started stirring up people (when she didn't need to) and now has Shelli/Barbie upset and saying that they may have to leave the twin in the game one more week because Audrey may need to go. That's a good turn of events, so I'm happy.

Shelli is going to talk to Vanessa about Audrey today. Someone is going to eventually tell Austin about the twins. It might be an interesting day on the feeds...y'all watch for me.

[nonobadfish]

I almost forgot!!! I promised Aprilshowers that I'd note the flashback time for the podcast. It started a little after 11:00 pm BBT. (And magoopy, it wasn't very exciting, so you didn't miss much when you went to sleep).

[magoopy]

Thanks Nono!!

[KeninVA]

For anyone who wonders by, and have been paying closer attention to the feeds than I have, why do you think Vanessa prefers Da to Meg. I assume you mean from a game perspective. I don't actually trust anything that Vanessa says right now, as indicative of her true intentions, and based on the fact that she reported her Da convo, not 10 minutes later to Shellie and Clay, make me doubt she would cross that pair so early in the game, for a lazy promise from Da. But, I have been wrong before.

[KeninVA]

Thanks. I think Vanessa is following the rule that in the early game, any boot is a good boot, as long as it is not her. I think a lot of her tactical modus operandi is to broach a topic with someone, looking for them to give her something back.

[Myragirl]

I agree that it is her modus operandi which is a good outlook at this stage. Her somewhat alliance with Slay is also a good gameplay for her. This way she is not high on their target list while still maintaining her own core people.

[TTOTambz2]

Her tell was she said "Meg hasn't even asked for my vote" and this was said to Day but ALSO to Slay.

Plus at the end of last week I caught Vanessa talking to on 2 occasions (Once to Austin and the other time I can't remember to who) where she was very obvious in her dislike for Meg. It makes sense b/c Meg was sitting in the position Vanessa wanted to be at that time (i.e. liked by everyone/targeted by no one). Also, Meg doesn't talk to Vanessa even in a non-game related way so Vanessa probably thinks Meg isn't useful to her. The fact Meg is close to Jeff who Van also hasn't pulled in close enough yet may also factor.

[nonobadfish]

I'm still here, Ken, although about to jump up because Mr. Nono is saying it's time to go. I think Vanessa prefers Da to Meg because she can actually have conversations with Da, and she has tried to talk to Meg and Meg doesn't have anything to say to her. Maybe Meg's social perkiness is too much for Vanessa? I still think Vanessa is voting to keep Meg, but she has stated to Da AND to Shelli/Clay that it's better for her own game to keep Da. She added (to Shelli/Clay) that even though it's better for her own game to keep Da, she's voting to evict her since she's such a loyal person to her allies. Vanessa has also stated that Meg hasn't even bothered to ask for her vote.

I know that Vanessa lies well (and I can't ever tell when she's lying), but I can't see the logic in her telling Shelli/Clay about Meg not asking for her vote and that Meg never has anything to say to her unless it's true. And I HAVE seen Da and Vanessa talking, and never Vanessa and Meg.

But, again, I don't think Vanessa would cross Shelli/Clay unless she knows that Austin is voting to keep Da. My gut says Vanessa is closest to Austin, and he MIGHT be able to sway her if Liz sways him. (If she does vote to keep Da, though, I don't think she would admit it....she'd use her poker face and say she has no clue who voted to keep Da, but it wasn't her.) Having said all that, I think Da is gone. (And now I'm gone.)

ETA: I re-read your question, and I not only think that Vanessa prefers Da socially, but also she prefers Da in the game. Da is a bigger target than she is, and everyone likes Meg. She thinks Da will not target her, and she's not sure about Meg because she doesn't talk to her.

[KeninVA]

Nono, that might all be true. An alternative theory is that she emphasizes to Shelli and Clay that she is making a move that is not optimal for her game, in order to maximize the gain for the group (whether true or not), and in particular good for Shelli. Shellie is the type of player that will feel a certain indebtedness. Vanessa is amassing chips right now. I don't think, at 2nd boot, that Meg is all that scary as a player. She has shown herself to be lazy socially, evidenced sloppy play (not asking for a vote? from everyone?) and has shown nothing in comps. I think, for Vanessa's game, building stronger relationships, and gathering in favors actually makes Da the better boot for Vanessa's game, and Vanessa knows it.

[nonobadfish]

I thought of that, Ken, and you're probably right because I haven't gotten to watch the feeds as much this year (YET...I'm working on that). But I'm just not sure. Vanessa also said the same thing to Da about Meg, and she runs the risk of Da telling Jason and word getting out and she's usually more careful with her words unless she means them.

My gut still thinks that Vanessa would be better off in the game with Da than with Meg because Da is a target and Meg is not. And Da WILL work with Vanessa while Meg, not so much. Da and Vanessa have had good conversations and are both older than that young crowd. BUT I don't think Vanessa will vote for Da unless something major happens, so it really doesn't matter.

It's mostly just instinct with me that thinks Vanessa prefers Da over Meg, and we know that my instinct has been wrong many times (especially when I'm not seeing them on the feeds as much as I want). I do like the way Vanessa is playing and the fact that we don't really know anything about her for sure.

(Hey, Smee...Mr. Nono went to lunch with his partners and left me here all by myself. Do we cheer him for leaving me alone that so no one knows I'm not working, or do we boo him for not taking me? )

[~smee~]

Sorry to respond so late, Nono, but I would say cheer now, but hold onto it to use if you need to guilt him later.

[Border57]

Good morning. Popping in and out here.

I'm not convinced that Austin doesn't know about the twins. Unlike the rest of the house, he keeps his own counsel to himself better. Add to that he has spent a lot of time with the twins and is pretty smart. Once he learned of the twin twist I'm sure he's noticed things. He figured out Da'Vonne was a poker dealer just by knowing where she lived and the fact she had wanted a pack of cards.

BTW, I saw a different blonde in the house yesterday and realized I was seeing Vanessa without her sunglasses!

I also don't think Da'Vonne will stay. She's a strong player and if you get a chance to take them out early, you should do it. She picked up on the twins, she's been found counting things in the house, the smart players should realize that she is going to be hard to beat on several of the competitions. It's not like there is a dearth of players to make up alliances with in the house, so she isn't needed to anyone in particular this early in the game.

[joahnn00]

I have been thinking the same thing Border, he may know, both are loyal to him so it may just not matter.

[JJJohnston]

No one is going to throw their game away to save her in Week 2 though. Even if she is your close ally, it's so early that you have plenty of time to fix things. She'll go like Jace did.

[herms is here]

I like to participate in the conversations but at times I no that I am not as insightful as the rest of you. I guess I have to pay better attention. Read peoples expressions better. I can say that I believe that people are just telling Da that they are keeping her to appease her. To bad, the to poker players would have been nice to watch, they should be working together. Hopefully in the future I will have more to add to the conversations.

[joahnn00]

I am the same way herms, I can think and form my theory, but have a horrible time putting it down in written form. Of course I always enjoy reading everyone else's analysis of the game. They will tell Da what she wants to hear, it's a sad fact of the game. I was hoping she could stay too, Meg ads nothing to this game, she just hangs out with former reality folks, and was cast because of it.

[KennyERJ]

The first Live Chat with Jeff Schroeder of the season will be with this Thursday's evicted houseguest on Friday, July 10 at 3pm ET/12 noon PT.

[PumpkinPie]

The first Live Chat with Jeff Schroeder of the season will be with this Thursday's evicted houseguest on Friday, July 10 at 3pm ET/12 noon PT.

I'm sure everyone noticed Julie didn't tell Jace "this may not be the end of your game" or anything similar to that. I wonder if she'll say something to this week's evictee since Jeff is having a Live Chat?

[KennyERJ]

Could be, PumpkinPie. More than likely they will start sequestering folks at some point because with this being a long season I would guess they'll be bringing back at least one evicted houseguest. If they start this week I wonder what Jace will think. He'd probably be wondering why he didn't get a chance to come back in.

[KeninVA]

I think they are going use Jury members as a bring back (summer of twists). There is some possibility that if Liz/Julia get evicted just before Jury, they sequester them, and rig some comp that would allow one of them to come back in. (which was what they must have been hoping for when Brendan went up against Lawon, instead of Rachel). But we have one or two more evictions before they have to sequester pre-jury boots to have four available to come back.

[nonobadfish]

Those of you have the feeds, flashback to Steve in the backyard talking to the cameras at around 5:30 am BBT. He spills all of his plans and what's he's thinking, who he wants to align with, etc. Good stuff.

[magoopy]

Very interesting listening to Steve! On a side note he forgot Becky when trying to remember who was on which side-exactly how I feel about her too-so easy to forget.

[herms is here]

I have the feeds but do not see where I can flash back. Could someone help me out.

[TTOTambz2]

Can you please give a break down... I'm in Canada i.e. no feeds. I'd love to know who he really wants to work with and how he sees the house split.

Am I correct in assuming he wants to work with Jason, Vanessa and maybe John? And that he knows Barbie & Ken need to be broken up?

[NJRUBBfan]

It's funny. I thought Vanessa got Meg put up there in the first place because she thought Meg might be her only threat as a female player. But Meg has done nothing but sit there while Day has been hustling all week. Vanessa probably thinks Day is the bigger threat now.