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**sdkgeo** · 07-13-2015, 06:05 AM

Morning all.

**KeninVA** · 07-13-2015, 06:56 AM

Morning Geo, and all who follow.

An eventful weekend in the BB house, as Vanessa/Austin/Clay/Shelli come up with a plan to bait Jeff, and come up with the prize. Jeff basically calls Vanessa a liar in front of the house, as all of his cross group game talk outed, and provides the excuse Vanessa wanted to put Jeff up. This confrontation came with some cost for Vanessa, as she raised her profile significantly, without gaining any additional support beyond what she had. But, I few the cost as minimal in that she was always being targeted by the Jeff/James/Meg/Jason crew right behind Audrey anyway, so not much has changed. What has happened is James is pulling away from his group, and making deals with Austin, Audrey, and Vanessa to not target them next week.

Meanwhile, Shelli and Clay remain undetected as playing both sides, and their role in Jeff's ouster is totally hidden. I think, based on loyalty and deals, the only one who would target them is James at this point. (James has promised not to strike out against so many people that his range of action will be very constrained if he wins HoH next week).

Jeff's game is done. All the make nice talk with Austin is a total put on, on Austin's part, and total lies on Jeff's part. What Jeff does not know, is that everything he has told Clay, as been fed back to Austin and Vanessa, and therefore, Austin knows Jeff was trying to get him up and out as early as next week. The fight gave Clay and Shelli a reason to not vote for Jeff, forced James to distance himself, and makes deals with the other side, which will have the effect of isolating Meg and Jason further. It will mean that unless the two of them win HoH together, they will have a hard time putting a dent into the Silent Six alliance.

Not much to see today, until after PoV, when Jeff will have to really wriggle to get off the hook. Depending on what he does, he could damage some of his allies, marginally. I think there is no way he does not exit the house this thursday.

**sdkgeo** · 07-13-2015, 07:09 AM

Ken, I think this has exposed Clay and Shelli, particularly Clay. It was mentioned by Austin I think last night when talking to Vanessa that he didn't realized how many cookie jars Clay had his hand in.

**nonobadfish** · 07-13-2015, 07:44 AM

Morning, all! I agree with you, geo. I disagree, Ken, (FINALLY) about the extent this has harmed Vanessa. I don't think she has glaring injuries, but tiny fissures that are going to hurt her game in the long run. Almost all of the house knows that she's embellishing the Jeff anger as an excuse to not put Audrey up. And one can't come away unscathed after talking for hours saying the entire story over and over and over again. From my point of view, Vanessa's stock has fallen with JohnnyMac, Becky, Jackie, Meg, Jason and James (even though he's covering because he's on the block). Austin is now not as secure in Vanessa's abilities and he's sharing those thoughts with Juliz (thinks she came off too dominant this week). I even think Audrey is tired of being told what to do and say and who she is allowed to talk to by Vanessa (although she won't do anything about it yet). In my opinion, the only people that Vanessa didn't take a hit with this week are Shelli and Clay (and maybe Steve).

I'm sure Vanessa is still safe for next week because she does have a large alliance and didn't cause it to turn on her, but the way she was/is viewed in the house Pre-HoH and Post-HoH will be completely different (and will make the game even more fun.)

Adding to the Vanessa downgrade, we also have the Sixth Sense fissures. Now Vanessa isn't sure of the twins and she's starting to wonder a bit about Clay and Austin. Ahhh....paranoia is so wonderful.

I said this before, and I'm serious: Vanessa is lucky that poker requires more silence than chatter, or she'd have to find a new game. Gracious...I bet her girlfriend has to wear earplugs.

**nonobadfish** · 07-13-2015, 07:51 AM

I hope it's an endurance HoH this week that's made for small-feet or hanging on to something. Jason and Jackie both did really well at that first endurance, and they both are fired up. (I'm not really expecting a true endurance because it takes too long to take them down in time to set up Battle of the Block, but it sure would be fun to see since everyone is all worked up.)

**TTOTambz2** · 07-13-2015, 09:32 AM

Morning All,

So I laid out yesterday what I thought Vanessa was up to and low and behold I was pretty much on the money:

She did think she was going to be the main target so by doing this she has created suspicion around Austin, Clay and Shelli which will only grow over the next 3 days.

Austin is already questioning Shlay and it's only a matter of time until Jeff/Jason/Jackie/Meg/James do as well.

Though I still believe this whole situation could've been handled differently it does play into her strategy:

1) Appear vulnerable, honest and emotional

I still believe the whole crying jig from week one was exaggerated, just like she turned on the fake tears with Jason. She is pulling the GLBT card to appear more sympathetic and also forgiving James for the reason (he's a father/has a daughter/was honest & apologized) .

2) To anyone outside her inner circle appear less intelligent/strategic than she is in the event they win power. This way she can point to others within the group as being the mastermind (Austin), the manipulator (Audrey), the liar (Shelli) the backstabber (Clay) and the power couple (the twins).

It's working so well that if Jeff called her dumb or "not capable of this strategic game" one more time it was going to be the mantra of the season

3) Use Audrey's strengths to accomplish her goals while also using the same strategy in a less obvious way.

She pointed out to Liz Audrey will attack the people around whomever she wants to work with (which is true) but by getting Liz to talk to her all she is doing is opening the door for Audrey to hang the twins (b/c Vanessa knows Julia/Liz aren't careful, so they'll slip up). Further she's planting Audrey type seeds with Austin vs Shlay (she knew this big dog and pony show would put a spotlight on all of Clay's double dipping which would alert Austin to them and will eventually alert the house), she asked Shelli/Clay about the twin situation b/c she's trying to create some distrust there. She also said to JohnM I know you'll throw it b/c you did last week (hence letting him know Shelli told her) and she told Shelli/Audrey the twins will always pick Austin first. In essence she's playing the SAME GAME as Audrey just more adeptly.

------

Something she has in common with Derrick is her ability to spot others weaknesses. No way she pulls the same staged fight with Jason for example.
Jeff is a great salesman who has fun with everyone & loves the alpha dog role, but he doesn't spot dissention (his ego won't allow him) nor is he capable of thinking logically in the moment. If he were he'd have used some of the following arguments:

Ask Vanessa:

*Have you ever told a lie in the game to protect yourself/your alliances?
* Have you ever agreed to an alliance or to work with people who you just said yes to, but had no intention of?
* Did you initiate and stage this whole fight as a reason to create the back door opportunity?
* Was this your plan all along to either back door me or James?
* Are you in more than one alliance?

When she slips up on any of the questions say so you aren't protecting Liz and her twin and lying to the house about it? You aren't in separate alliances with Austin and Clay and Shelli as well as others and aren't in any alliances with Audrey? You didn't plan the whole week to never put up Audrey. So, if I call everyone in the room and ask you these questions like you are asking of me you won't have a problem with that?

Tell her, Vanessa what you are doing is bullying me into a catch 22. You're asking me to out my entire game, tell you every lie I've ever told and turn on every relationship I have. If I don't do it I go on the block. If I do I expose my game, my friends games and I still go on the block. How is there any logical way to answer what you are asking of me when you wouldn't do it yourself?

I'd say, it's obvious this was your master plan all along and the fact you are saying you NOW forgive James points to the fact you never intended to put up Audrey which means you were lying to everyone all week and now you've decided to shift the target from James to me. If you want me to be honest then just own your actions. You can't be a hypocrite and expect me to respect you!

Vanessa can get away with this b/c she correctly sees Jeff's weaknesses, he would never call her on these things & therefore he's a goner.

This post is getting long,.... but I have another to follow on where Vanessa made one HUGE MISCALCULATION.. and what I want to see happen next.

**BettyBoo** · 07-13-2015, 09:48 AM

Love reading all takes on house events. After three HOH s looks like Shelli came out the best, ruffling the fewest feathers, and remains the lead horse in the BB race. James didn't build on his HOH consolidating alliances and Vanessa blew hers with unnecessary dramatics that put fissures into what should be a solid group . Audrey remains the friendless snake in the grass waiting to strike.

Wish the 'other' side would get together and give the Shelli/Clay group some competition, rather then shaking in weeds waiting to be taken out. If they would just count, James (or Jeff), Jason, John, Steve, Meg, Jackie & Becky have the numbers against the others right now.But they don't have the glue player like Shelli is to hold them together. Steve & John have already done lackey service for Shelli' s team, when they should be working for themselves.

So, leaving a wake-up call for Thursday's new HOH. And please somebody have the b*lls to kick out Audrey!!! Warning to new HOH: DO NOT LOOK DIRECTLY INTO MEDUSA' S EYES!!! She will bewitch you before she strikes with her venom.

**TTOTambz2** · 07-13-2015, 10:01 AM

Vanessa's big mistake:

Repeatedly Nessa has said Johnny Mac won't win this game and has under estimated him which COULD be her fatal mistake. During her HOH she made a ton of mistakes specifically where JohnM is concerned:

1) She told John M I know you threw the BOTB last week so I need you to do it again. I think she partly did this b/c she wanted to out that Shelli/Clay told her so he would feel like they sold him out, but all it did was serve to show him how closely aligned they are

2) He now knows Nessa/Austin/the Twins/Clay/Shelli are in a power alliance AND he further sees the other two members of Steve & Audrey b/c....

3) Nessa implied her goal all week was to back door Audrey, but during the fight it came out she was originally targeting James, but NOW had forgiven him so John M knows she was lying which means she was always protecting Audrey. Furthermore b/c she did exactly what Shelli did it spotlights them all being aligned

4) John KNOWS Vanessa IS A STRATEGIST ... so this whole staged fight won't sit well with him. He'll know there is a pecking order the six sense are together.

5) Because of the staged fight he will also know they underestimate him & are lying to him (we are targeting Audrey) and also know Shelli but more so Clay completely back stabbed Jeff which was the plan all along.

6) Steve has been bursting at the seams with excitement & since John was one of the few people that was nice to him he's slipping up and letting little things out (sometimes using exactly the same wording as Vanessa) so now he also knows Steve is in an alliance with Vanessa!

7) Nessa also underestimates how observant John M is and his relationships with Steve, Becky, Jackie, Jason, Meg, James and Jeff. He is hearing from Becky what happened last week & hearing what Nessa/Shelli told those people versus what he was told.

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo here's my hope for next week

John M and Jason win HOH and compare notes. They put it all on the table to recognize who the sixth sense are with the outliers of Steve, John and Becky/Jackie being used to help them get out who they want.

1) They pull Shelli & Vanessa in (separately) but meet them as a tandem HOH and request each of them to THROW THE BOTB. I want this to happen just to see the looks on their faces & hear their excuses for why they can't! LOL

2) Jason nominates Shelli/Vanessa with the promise they'll throw the BOTB and to ensure they stay on the block they put up Steve (and ideally James to ensure they beat them or if worst comes to worse cut a deal with Austin and put up Steve/Austin)

3) After Jason remains HOH with Shelli/Vanessa meet with each of the Sixth Sense plus Audrey INDIVIDUALLY asking them what deal they will give them BOTH for safety and ask who their target is. This is why it would be ideal if Steve/James are the BOTB winners b/c if they say Jackie/Becky or Meg they can say "Really.. that's who you see as the biggest threat in the house?" They need to keep pushing until they get a name from within the Sixth Sense +Audrey. It's likely every single one of them will say Audrey which is perfect b/c by being in the room together they'll have a witness.

4) Then pull in Audrey, let her spill her guts and then tell her the Sixth Sense all said YOU should be the target, so if you have a deal with them you should know you are the low person on the totem pole & they are only leaving you in the game as a target. Offer her safety if she agrees (in front of all the outsiders) to work in tandem with them to break up Clay/Shelli, the Twins & Austin/Vanessa which would give them all 3 weeks of targets.

Though TPTB will want to protect Vanessa (I suspect) she would be my priority boot, however I'd be just as happy to target Shelli first as she is the common thread between Clay, Audrey and Vanessa.

I'm hoping I'm not underestimating John & Jason but for this season not to turn into a week by week oust of Jeff, Jason, James, Becky, Audrey, Jackie the outsiders need to align and since the numbers will soon be in the Sixth Sense's favor (read: opening for Vanessa/Audrey to make it all the way) they need to act now.

Plus i want this for my pure enjoyment. I want to see Clay, Shelli and Vanessa have to actually sweat. Can you imagine Nessa/Shelli's faces if they were asked to throw the BOTB by John? How could they really argue not doing it?

**KeninVA** · 07-13-2015, 10:04 AM

I am hoping for one more reaping. The small group has been unable to get their heads into the game, despite the obvious snatching of both Da and Jeff. Once James or Meg gets the boot, I hope the two survivors split up and start really playing at that point. The Shlay/ Vaustin groups will have to start to stalk each other, giving an advantage to the late bloomers JMAC/Steve/Becky since they will represent swing votes in any intra Silent Six battles.

**Luanne** · 07-13-2015, 10:11 AM

Good morning all........ I agree with Ken, the people now coming after Vanessa are the same ones that were before she became HOH. Her alliance will be wishing she does not get HOH again. She made some gains while HOH. She is the one Liz confirmed being a twin with and she knew they needed to pull her in for the number. She accomplished that. She was able to pull Steve into the larger alliance without giving away the fact that she was already aligned with him. She is working on Becky but Becky is not ready to commit to any one for the long term. (that is what Becky told her) Becky just does not want to be on the outside. She wants someone to talk game with her that is willing to win HOH. Vanessa has done that. The house could go either way this next week as Clay/Shelli are working both sides and will float to either side. Austin will be watching them this week but can not afford to call them out at this time.

BettyBoo- I agree Shelli has had the best HOH. She did what she wanted and everyone has adjusted to Da being gone. She has mended the fence with Jason when she gave him the sincere comfort he needed.

I think Jeff will go home unless he sways Austin, Clay and Shelli that he will be on their side more than James. James has surprised me. I thought he did a great job as HOH but realize that he is content to lay back, flirt and have fun. He thought he had this great "8" person alliance and everything would be easy to the end. He needs to do some work.

**BettyBoo** · 07-13-2015, 10:24 AM

I keep picturing the HG s running around the house w/bows & arrows like Hunger Games killing each other. Still think Giselle will get the final Chenbot interview and admit her strategy was to lay low and look deflated.

**BettyBoo** · 07-13-2015, 10:51 AM

So, who will be awarded the "Fruit Loop Dingus" of the season award? So far Austin & Jeff are tied for being so clueless. Uh, what's a twin?

Jackie is also in the running for just being a doorstop in the house. Blink, Jackie, blink. Let us know you're breathing. I still think she's Victoria who was left in the house when nobody told her to go home last year. Same hair and Jackie looks like she had some plastic surgery (nose job?), so maybe she's another game twist. Mmmnnn?

**KennyERJ** · 07-13-2015, 11:31 AM

Shelli's wearing a Georgia Bulldogs T-shirt. Go DAWGS!

**LeslieP** · 07-13-2015, 01:27 PM

Clay's hair right now....EEEEEEEK!

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